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Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has warned that Iran has now amassed enough material that they can create several nuclear weapons. According to Director General Grossi, the West should step up its efforts to engage diplomatically with Iran to ensure that they do not follow through in creating these weapons. Though headed to Tehran for a visit in February to pursue political dialogue with the Iranian regime, the fact is that the nuclear deal signed with Iran in 2015 called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in shambles.

The continued survival of mankind is more in danger than ever, according to a group of worldwide experts, primarily as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Doomsday Clock, which was created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists in 1947 to represent the existential hazards facing the world at the dawn of the nuclear era, was placed at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight the clock has ever been.

In a recent interview, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol expressed claims regarding the current state of the United State's foreign policy on nuclear weapon usage between the US and South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol stated that South Korea was "in talks with the United States to carry out joint planning and joint exercises involving US nuclear forces to counter North Korea's nuclear threats." [i]

Kim Jong-un, Supreme Leader of North KoreaPhoto byBlue House (Republic of Korea) via Wikimedia CommonsIt is barely the start of 2023 and already concerns are increasing again about North Korea. This past weekend, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered an “exponential” expansion of his country’s nuclear arsenal, as well as the development of more powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking the mainland of the United States, all on the heels of another weapons launch. Unfortunately this move is not unexpected for those focused on the military policies of North Korea, as Kim has in the past repeatedly vowed to boost the quality and quantity of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal in order to counter what he calls hostility from the United States. Likely these latest tests and efforts at expanding his nuclear arsenal are a gambit by Kim to demonstrate his potential threat and thus win greater concessions for his regime and country in the future.

Kim Jong-Un, Supreme Leader of North KoreaVictoria Model from Pixabay. After additional missile launches by North Korea this past week, one of which was an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) despite the best efforts of the United Nations Security Council, government officials in both the United States and South Korea now believe that Kim Jong Un might be preparing for the a new nuclear test. For their part, North Korea has stated that the missile tests they have conducted have been in response to the military drills conducted by the United States, South Korea, and Japan in the region. Moreover, North Korea has obliquely threatened that, should the United States and South Korea initiate an attack, they will use nuclear weapons in the resulting conflict. When these statements are combined with the suspicions that North Korea is about to conduct the seventh nuclear test in its history, there is concern that both sides might be engaged in a escalatory cycle that increases the odds of conflict. This is especially the case given North Korea this past September announced a new nuclear weapons law which said that the country was a nuclear armed state which would not be pursuing disarmament.

The atomic cloud over Nagasaki 1945US National Archives and Records Administration. According to information gained from multiple unidentified senior American officials, conversations between senior Russian military leaders have recently occurred in which the topic was how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon to reverse setbacks on the battlefields of Ukraine, as well as when this might happen. While these same sources of intelligence suggest that President Vladimir Putin was not actually party to these conversations on how tactical nuclear weapons might be utilized by Russian forces, the fact that they are ongoing in the first place is still a major cause for concern.

Given the increase in mobilization in Russia signaling even greater commitment by Putin and his regime to succeed in their aggressive war in Ukraine, concerns about the potential use of nuclear weapons by the Russian aggressions have increased as well. In a release by the Atlantic Council some time ago, a number of experts presented several scenarios for how Putin might utilize nuclear weapons.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, spoke Thursday and stated that there would be an increased nuclear threat in the region along Russia's border with Finland if Finland and Sweden join NATO.

On Saturday, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the Russian security council discussed the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. This comes on the heels of unconfirmed deployment of white phosphorus against civilians in key areas.

As the war in Ukraine escalates, Russian President Vladimir Putin has begun to make threats about the use of nuclear weapons. To be clear, it remains incredibly unlikely with these weapons would actually be used. Their use would mark an unprecedented escalation in a conflict that is more likely to stay contained in a region where is taking place.