Democratic Analyst and Clinton Advisor James Carville Warns Dems Their Focus on Abortion is Going to Cost Them

Wild Orchid Media

For most of the summer, Democratic candidate after Democratic candidate has tried desperately to rally voters around the SCOTUS reversal of Roe vs Wade. However, poll after poll shows it isn’t working
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In a recent interview with the Associated Press, Carville explained:

“A lot of these consultants think if all we do is run abortion spots that will win for us. I don't think so. It's a good issue. But if you just sit there and they're pummeling you on crime and pummeling you on the cost of living, you've got to be more aggressive than just yelling abortion every other word.”

Democrats had hoped the overturning of Roe v. Wade would offer them a political boon in the midterm elections, where they are favored to lose the House and are now poised to lose control of the Senate as well, albeit by a narrow margin.

To date, Democratic candidates, and the party's campaign arm, known as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and affiliated super PACS have spent over $18 million airing more than 100 abortion-focused ads in four dozen (48) different strongly contested regions of the country, according to data from media tracking firm AdImpact.

As it is, that amount is 3 times more than what the entire Democratic party spent on abortion ads during the whole 2018 general election.

Further, no less than 7 super PACS have laser-focused their messages on abortion rights, as has the DCCC. Even more, outside groups have dedicated more than 40% of their total TV air-time spending on abortion ads, according to AdImpact.

The ads largely paint Republicans as extremists who want to take away rights for half of the country, meanwhile, Republicans are shying away from the matter, keeping the focus on crime, inflation, and the border. Perhaps because much of the Democratic push seems concentrated on energizing women to vote blue.

This argument instead has had the exact opposite effect on many Christian-valued conservative women who happen to be the people leading the charge to restrict abortion to cases of rape, incest, and medical emergency to the mother.

Many other strategists and analysts agree with Carville, that abortion alone will not help Democrats maintain power.

"Abortion is probably Democrats' best opportunity in decades to build a new electoral coalition, and I'm excited to see them finally discovering their voice on the issue," Democratic strategist Max Burns is quoted as saying.
"But Carville is also right that we'll need to talk about abortion and other kitchen table issues as well. Abortion is a winning issue for Democrats, but it can't be the only issue."

GOP strategist Ken Spain was even less convinced abortion could help sway elections.

"Inflation and the economy will be the defining issues of the election. Messaging aggressively on the abortion issue could potentially help Democrats mitigate losses in some races, but it’s unlikely to change the trajectory of the election," Spain said.

This would seem to be in line with the recent polls which all ask their respondents what the most important issues are facing America today that will influence their vote. In every poll we could find, several of which have a reputation for left-leaning polling results, no more than 7% of the respondents polled indicated abortion was even in the top 5 most important issues facing America today, though almost all of them cited the economy and inflation as either their number one or number two most important issue.

Even Sen. Bernie Sanders said Democrats could be making a mistake by hitting the issue too hard.

"As we enter the final weeks of the 2022 midterm elections, I am alarmed to hear the advice that many Democratic candidates are getting from establishment consultants and directors of well-funded Super Pacs that the closing argument of Democrats should focus only on abortion. Cut the 30-second abortion ads and coast to victory," he wrote in a column for The Guardian.
"I disagree. In my view, while the abortion issue must remain on the front burner, it would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered."

Another veteran Democratic strategist, Chuck Rocha, told he tells the candidates he advises to lean into the abortion matter.

"This election is about turnout, not about persuasion. Abortion is a great issue for mobilization of women, especially young women," he said. "Young women just happen to over-index voting for Democrats."

But he said that older voters and male voters tend not to decide their vote on abortion. 'That's why I've been telling my candidates to run on an abortion-plus narrative,' he said, pointing to Democratic bills that have sailed through Congress like the Inflation Reduction Act.

Republicans, on the other hand, are keeping up a steady stream of attacks on Biden's economic record.

Those ads focus on inflation and the high price of gas as they try to tell voters they can do a better job on the type of pocketbook issues that often decide elections.

The GOP got good news last week when the OPEC+ oil alliance moved to keep prices high by cutting production, sending gas prices immediately higher in the U.S. - despite Biden's efforts to woo Saudi Arabia's crown prince.

In a recently leaked strategy memo, written for the Republican National Committee, the brain trusts set out how the Democrats are playing into their hands.

"Democrats and the national media are determined to try and make abortion the top issue ahead of the midterms, however, the media is not on our side, and we do not answer to them but to voters," claimed the written analysis by the Tarrance Group.
"Voters have made clear this election is largely about the economy and crime."

Meanwhile, in polling commissioned directly by the National Republican Congressional Committee in August and September, voters in 68 out of 69 districts said both the economy and inflation combined were more important than abortion rights to them. Inflation was the top issue at 25%, followed by abortion at 12%.

Veracity Editor's Note:

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