New Polls Confirm August Mid Term Projections Were Inaccurate | Opinion

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Polls that once tried to convince America that Biden and Dems were surging are now walking back those proclamations
Graph Courtesy of The Brookings Institute

The most recent poll taken by ABC News and The Washington Post, suggests Republicans are gaining ground on Democrats after a difficult summer just weeks before the midterm elections.

The Democratic ‘edge’ described by many media outlets after the Supreme Court overturning of Roe vs Wade are now proving to have been grossly overinflated as poll after poll is showing conclusively that there are only very small percentages of Americans who consider abortion rights to be one of the top 5 most important issues facing our country today.

What’s more, many of these same outlets have been trying to tell us for over a month now that President Joe Biden’s national job approval rating has grown out of lethargy and has ‘skyrocketed’ to use a commonly heralded recent media term. But as we can see now, as we visit these newest polls, those same media outlets are beginning to walk back those earlier comments as they can no longer deny that most Americans lack confidence and support for this administration.

Also, as we have seen in these new polls, as President Biden’s approval rating dips, so does the popularity of many of the Democrats running in tightly contested Congressional and gubernatorial races across the country.

A recent Politico/Morning Consult poll shows that registered voters surveyed favor Democrats over Republicans 45% to 43%. Though this differs greatly from many other polls which show Republicans with substantial favor over Democrats, this most recent Politico poll at least shows that their projected Democratic lead is down over 2 points from the most recent previous poll by the same group.

Some 12% of respondents said they were unsure or did not have an opinion on which party they want to win the midterm elections. The poll surveyed 2,005 registered voters from Sept. 23-25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

In the Politico poll, only 41% of voters surveyed approved of President Joe Biden 's performance in office, down from 46% in the most recent prior poll from the group, indicating that Americans' mood on Biden is souring in the homestretch of the midterm election cycle. This is still in stark contrast to the ABC/Washington Post Poll which clearly shows Biden’s approval rating hasn’t moved above 39%, despite efforts by other agencies to convince Americans that it has.

A string of other polls has also indicated that Republicans are gaining ground. The GOP now has the edge over Democrats in generic congressional vote polling, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics polling aggregate, and that trend has only increased over recent weeks.

At the start of the summer, Republicans had been heavily favored in the midterm elections. But talks of a red wave crashed near the summer's end as a promised backlash against the overturning of Roe v. Wade set in and Democrats racked up a few legislative victories. But reality has now superseded the hype, and the backlash simply never happened.

FiveThirtyEight and other forecasters have since released projections that favor Democrats winning the Senate while still pegging Republicans as most likely to win the House, however, the most recent polls have been moving in favor of the GOP again, indicating the party is racking up some serious momentum. A string of recent polls shows tight races in Georgia, Wisconsin, Ohio, and elsewhere that could determine the balance of power in the 50-50 Senate.

Some experts have cautioned that polling may be skewed in favor of the left. For example, New York Times elections analyst Nate Cohn recently wrote a piece arguing that there are similarities between recent polls and past ones that overestimated Democrats. Also, Ari Fleischer, the former White House press secretary in the Bush administration, recently warned that polls are too dependent on registered voters.

"Registered voters don't vote. Voters vote. And so, you need to switch to likely voters. Likely voters always vote more Republican than registered voters. And right now, the media is still using an overbroad pool of people called registered voters," Fleischer told Fox News's, Laura Ingraham.

Veracity Editor's Note:

This unbiased, non-satirical, fully attributed article was thoroughly researched by our team of fact-checkers and found to be accurate. The sources relied upon for the factual basis of this article were: The Washington Examiner, The Associated Press, The New York Post, ABC News Polling, The Washington Post Polling, FiveThirtyEightPolling, Politico, The New York Times, and Fox News.

More information on this and all of our stories are available on our network website

This article was compiled and written by Investigative Reporter Crystal Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!

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