With a number of recent gubernatorial polls now in, the data suggests some interesting possibilities
With less than 2 months remaining until the heralded November 8th mid-term elections, the relevance and accuracy of polls becomes much more important.
At this stage of the game, polls determine where and how candidates and their supporters will spend their last precious campaign dollars, as these last weeks begin to wind down. It’s also a time when some of the less reliable polling agencies begin to show their inherent biases and skew the data.
This is inherently apparent in races where 5 or 6 polls are showing one candidate with a substantial lead, and the other(s) apparently falling further behind by the day. Sure, we’ve all seen polls that ended up being wrong, but since legitimate polling agencies all use the same types of neutral criteria when employing their surveys, it’s a foregone conclusion that most of those polling agencies will get similar results, only varying by the type, style, and slant or suggestiveness of the questions asked, and whether or not they polled ‘likely voters’ vs ‘registered voters.’
The reason why this is so important is that ‘likely voters’ aren’t necessarily eligible to vote. These surveys could have been completely by immigrants who do not have official legal status, convicted felons who have not had their voting rights restored, people who are not registered to vote, and people who have never voted in their entire lives. They are considered likely voters simply because they agreed to take the time to answer the survey questions and submit them.
Conversely, registered voters are just that. They have already registered to vote someplace, for some election. This doesn’t mean that 100% of registered voters will vote either, but the statistical likelihood a registered will actually vote is significantly higher than a likely voter, which, in the eyes of many, make polls that surveyed likely voters, much less representative of the beliefs of the people who will actually cast ballots in the impending elections, than those of registered voters.
This is important because in all of the recent polling we have evaluated, (and The Veracity Report has staff who scour polls all day, every day, particularly this close to an actual election), virtually every registered voter poll we have perused has shown incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp with a large, and continuously widening statistical lead over two-time Democratic challenger, Stacey Abrams.
Then, all of a sudden, a statistical anomaly appears. One single poll, by Quinnipiac, shows Stacey Abrams trailing Kemp by only two percentage points.
Two points are significant because most polls, even the best ones, have incorporated margins of error that hover somewhere around +/- 3%. In any race where the distance between the candidates is smaller than the declared margin of error, that poll is considered too close to call, or a statistical tie.
This is what the Quinnipiac poll would suggest. That the race between Governor Kemp and Stacey Abrams is a statistical tie since the margin of lead is lower than the poll’s margin of error.
However, every other poll we could find that has been completed over the last couple of weeks, shows the incumbent governor winning by 7, 8, and in some cases, even by a full ten percentage points over Abrams.
Polls such as:
Emerson, and the
all show polling results vastly different than the Quinnipiac Poll.
Here at The Veracity Report, we draw no conclusions regarding the data in these polls or the legitimacy and reliability of any of them. But we do feel that it is important for our readers to know and understand how these polls work and at least some of the ways the data can be skewed to provide a false narrative, particularly to the less politically savvy reader.
Veracity Editor's Note to Readers:
This unbiased, non-satirical, un-opinionated, and fully attributed article was compiled by investigative reporter Crystal Dillon. It is comprised of information compiled from the following sources: Real Clear Politics, Quinnipiac Polling, Emerson Polling, and Fox 5 Atlanta Polling.
Compiled by Investigative Reporter Crystal Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!
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