Recently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have frequently dropped below $20,000 and $1,000, making many to speculate whether the crypto bear market has bottomed out, and if not, how far can it go before the crypto market starts to stabilize? In this regard, some analysts believe that the most important thing now is the macroeconomic situation and changes in the CPI (Consumer Price Index), that is, the inflation index. If inflation continues to rise, the central bank will have no choice but to raise interest rates, which will lead to further selling. However, when inflation starts to fall, central banks may decide not to raise interest rates as aggressively as they are now, which will lead to more optimism in the stock market, and the crypto market in general.
Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer at Coinshares, said that bitcoin has always been a "cyclical asset", and from a historical point of view, bitcoin's decline from all-time highs to bottoms has generally been 80% to 90%. Therefore, Bitcoin has room to fall further. Currently, Bitcoin is only down about 65% from its all-time high set in November last year, and Bitcoin will have a strong support level at $20,000, and Bitcoin is not expected to fall below $14,000. In addition, there has been no recent “catalyst” for the rise of cryptocurrencies, and it will take a while for the trend to reverse. During a bear market, a large number of cryptocurrencies will be wiped out. In the long run, most cryptocurrencies will go to zero and only the strongest will survive. Bitcoin is set to hit another all-time high in the next 24 months.
“We’re getting close to a point where some of the really excess leverage has now been driven out of the system and a bottom is starting to form,” said Giles Keating, director of Bitcoin in Switzerland. While there is still a risk of further liquidations, a lot of the real big liquidations are now done and the foundations are really being formed.
Alex, a project leader at TREX Global, said that the current bitcoin is gradually in the hands of holders with higher beliefs, which requires a mature process, "The market is establishing a resilient bottom, and new opportunities are coming. ".
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