The data shows that the US CPI in June was 0.3 percentage points higher than the expected value, 0.5 percentage points higher than the previous value; the annual rate of the core CPI in June was 5.90%, although lower than the previous value of 6%, but also significantly higher than the expected 5.70% .
Markets expect the Fed to continue raising the federal funds rate range by 75 basis points at the end of its July policy meeting. This would be its fourth consecutive rate hike and the third consecutive rate hike above 25 basis points.
At present, the US dollar is trading sideways at 108, quickly getting rid of the 7-year upper track, showing that the bulls have strong momentum, the main European fundamentals are pessimistic about economic recovery, and the market expects the failure of interest rate hikes to lead to a sharp drop in the euro and the pound and the US, which in turn pushes the dollar up. Now There is still a period of time before the interest rate hike on July 25. At the same time, after the interest rate hike of 75 to 100 basis points, that is, the interest rate hike will not occur until September, which means that there is a 2-month vacuum period in the middle after the interest rate hike is experienced at the same time. , even if there is an interest rate hike in the later period, there will be no such range as 567 three months.
With the global economic recovery expectations, the circulation of commodity raw materials, and the decline in oil prices, there are more or less signs of inflation. Therefore, the Fed's interest rate hike in the later period must be determined by the economic recovery data to determine the rate of interest rate increase and the strength of the balance sheet, that is, It is said that the soft landing of the U.S. economy is the key. After more than a year of fluctuations in the dollar, the dollar has experienced stagnation at a high level. Therefore, investors should still be cautious about the risk of the dollar rising and falling back.