This Thanksgiving week will feature a storm in the middle, as we've been writing about since last Wednesday. Here's the details on what to expect:
Here's the summary, read below for details:
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The first part of the week will be dominated by high pressure. This will lead to calm, but chilly weather. Skies will be mostly sunny on Monday across New England. This strong area of high pressure will lead to a strong northwest flow. This will create a cold day, with most of New England struggling to climb out of the 30s. Some northern areas won’t climb out of the 20s. A chilly breeze will kick in for the afternoon, leading to wind chills in the 20s and 30s region-wide.
Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of the year for many, with morning lows dropping to the teens and 20s across New England. The day will start off clear before clouds increase from west to east ahead of our pre-Thanksgiving storm. Highs Tuesday will be similar to Monday, though with less wind.
TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY: STORM
New England’s next storm will move in from west to east starting late Tuesday night. An area of low pressure will track to New England’s north with a secondary low spawning along its cold front near the Mid-Atlantic. The storm will start as a burst of snow for most of New England Tuesday night. The snow will begin to transition to rain generally from south to north. The transition to rain will also be elevation based with higher elevations holding onto snow longer than valleys.
In southern New England, this will be a mainly rain event for the coastline, eastern Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island and the Merrimack and Connecticut River Valleys. The Berkshires and Worcester Hills will hang onto the snow a bit longer, allowing for a light accumulation of 1-3 inches before rain takes over by Wednesday morning.
Expected weather late Tuesday to early Wednesday:
A soaking rain is expected once the transition occurs, with a widespread 1 to 1.5 inches of rain. A dry slot may work into southern New England in the afternoon, which would lead to more scattered and light showers, so the heaviest of the rain will likely occur Wednesday morning.
In northern New England, moderate to heavy snow is expected at the beginning of the storm with a transition to rain expected to begin at the coast and in the valleys of Vermont early Wednesday morning. The rain/snow line will gradually work its way inland and up the slopes during the day Wednesday. Naturally, the farther north and higher in elevation you go, the more snow will fall as the storm will stay snow longer.
Expected weather Wednesday morning, around sunrise (1st image) and early afternoon (2nd image):
Snowfall amounts will generally be in the 3-6 inch range for the southern Green Mountains, western New Hampshire into the lakes region and the White mountains into northern Maine. The most snow will likely fall across the north side of Lake Winnipesaukee through the White Mountains.
The big question will be how far does the rain/snow line push and how long does it take to get to the lakes region and points north? For snowfall everywhere, remember that for many areas, the storm will switch to rain, so much of the snow will also get washed away.
The snow itself will likely be more of the heavy and sticky variety. This will suppress snowfall amounts to an extent as this type of snow compresses when it hits the ground. Also, with cold conditions in place for Monday and Tuesday, road surfaces will cool, allowing the snow to better stick to the roads, so snow covered roads will be common across much of northern New England before the transition to rain. Southern New England will likely see roads clear up by Wednesday morning.
By mid-afternoon Wednesday, the storm will be starting to clear out of most of New England. Maine will remain in it through Wednesday evening and into the overnight hours as the storm continues to slide eastward.
Expected weather Wednesday evening:
Winds will also be an issue for some. The storm will strengthen as it moves offshore. This will increase winds, especially along the coast. Exact wind gusts remain a bit of an uncertainty, but gusts 35-50mph are possible along the coast, with the highest gusts at Cape Cod and the Islands. Elsewhere in New England, gusts of 20-35mph are possible. Scattered power outages may result, but widespread outages from this storm remain unlikely. The amount of snow expected in northern areas isn’t quite enough to weigh down branches and take down power lines.
What has been certain for about a week now is that the storm will be pulling away in time for Thanksgiving day. The day will feature clearing skies and cool temperatures. Winds will be out of the northwest, which will create a chilly breeze. This flow will also support some continued scattered snow showers to develop in the mountains, though these would have a very low impact compared to Wednesday. Overall, Thanksgiving day is looking to be quiet and pleasant by late-November standards.
There are mixed signals about whether or not a weak disturbance will organize to bring New England some precipitation Friday night into Saturday. This could bring some light snow showers to a portion of the region. Whether or not this develops, it will be low-impact with only light precipitation. Overall, high pressure will try to remain in control, with seasonable temperatures.