After reviewing multiple political polling sources and web-based analytics, we find that the probability that Dems will maintain control of either Chamber is highly unlikely
First, in keeping with our commitment to sharing only the most reliable source information, it’s important for us to explain that The Veracity Report only considers polls that have been conducted by reputable polling agencies nationwide.
Staying consistent with that mission, we only consider polls that transparently share their methodologies, demographics, total number of respondents, whether they are “likely voters” or “registered voters”, and their respective margins of error. It is also our policy to attempt to use several polls as source information in all our articles whenever possible (sometimes there is only one available), and also to directly link our readers to those respective polls so they can see for themselves that we have not manipulated the data or results of those polls in any way.
That being established, when we view the Real Clear Politics projections for the House of Representatives races, it looks like Republicans stand to gain as low as 14 seats in the House up to as many as 48. Since the GOP only needs to gain a total of 6 House seats to take control of the lower chamber, it’s pretty much a statistical certainty that Nancy Pelosi will not be the Speaker of the House once the 118 Congress convenes in January.
As far as the Senate is concerned, the range of possibilities spans from the Democrats maintaining a slim majority to republicans gaining up to a filibuster-proof 60-40 majority. RCP is projecting Republicans will win most of the races that are considered “toss-ups” in states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. They have projected that, when all is said and done, Republicans will have a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and all of the indicators we have found seem to agree with that assessment, give or take a seat or two.
As a result of this data, we believe it’s safe to predict that, come Wednesday, or very shortly thereafter, once all the dust settles, Republicans will have control of both the Senate and the House, when the 118th Congress sits for the first time in January 2023.
In numerous other recent articles, which we have published on this platform, we have zoomed in and broken down most of the key races individually. It is because of those results, as well as the analytics supplied by companies like Real Clear Politics.
These companies are not polling agencies but are rather aggregators that provide polling averages based on data from polling agencies across the country. It is entirely because of this aggregated data, and not because of any preconceived bias, political affiliations, agendas, or ideologies, that have led us to make the predictions that we have in this article.
Because of this data, we are strong of the opinion that, barring some sensationally drastic last-minute occurrence that shocks the nation, a Republican takeover of both Chambers of Congress is virtually inevitable – though we must stress here that we are not presenting this as evidence in fact, but as an informed opinion based upon many hours of extensive research by our team of political correspondents and statistical researchers.
Of course, it is impossible to predict the results of any election, however, by concentrating our efforts on only reputable polling agencies and aggregators, all of whom use transparent polling methodologies, we can and most often do see more accurate results.
As always, The Veracity Report will keep you up to date on these and all races as we get closer to the polls closing across the nation, and we welcome your feedback in the comments or on our website.
Veracity Editor's Note:
This unbiased, non-satirical, fully attributed article was thoroughly researched by our team of fact-checkers and found to be accurate. The sources relied upon for the factual basis of this article were: Real Clear Politics, Daily Mail/Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Polling, NY Times/Sienna College Polling, Fox 5 Insider Advantage, Fox News, WXIA-TV/Survey USA, Remington Research, Marist Polling, The Associated Press, Reuters, and veracityreport.org.
More information on this and all our stories are available on our network website veracityreport.org.
This article was compiled and written by Chief Political Correspondent Kurt Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!
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