Last Polling Before Mid-Terms Shows GOP Could Win up to 54 Senate Seats

The Veracity Report

Last-minute polling from key battleground states shows that several Senate races which were once believed to be leaning heavily Democrat are now being led by Republicans the day before elections

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Graph Courtesy of Bloomberg.com

With only about 36 hours before voting closes across the country on Tuesday evening, the latest polling data from several of the most trusted national polling sources, which have been aggregated here into the Real Clear Politics statistical analytics for the House of Representatives races, and the US Senate races, are showing that, other than the respective races the GOP has taken statistical leads in, more than a few of the races where Democrats were strongly favored only a short time ago, are now either polling as a toss-up, or are even favored to be won by Republicans.

None of these is more shocking than New Hampshire, where incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, once a strong favorite to win re-election, is now polling in a statistical dead heat with her Republican challenger Don Bolduc.

What’s more, the state that Joe Biden won by a full 7 points two years ago, and which former president Barack Obama has recently spent time on the campaign trail, stumping for Hassan in, is now so close in the polling that Politico Polling has officially shifted their Election Forecast for the race from “Leans Strongly Democrat” to “Toss Up.”

While the complete picture of the 6 key battleground Senate seats up for grabs in this mid-term officially remain toss-ups, a sweep of those six seats by Republicans would see the GOP with a total of 54 Senate seats, and a very comfortable majority in the upper Chamber, come January.

Even if the 6 toss-up states were to be split, Republicans would end up with a one-seat majority in the Senate, enough to upset the applecart of Democrat legislative control for the next two years at least.

Aside from the battleground Senate races now squarely in play, are also 4 governor’s races and 13 House seats which have all been trending Republican of late.

Meanwhile, in Florida, Republican Senator Marco Rubio has all but sealed his victory over Democratic challenger Val Demings, and Washington State, once a fortress-like Democratic stronghold has now been downgraded from “Likely Democratic” to Leans Democratic.”

By sliding into the “Toss-Up” category, New Hampshire joins Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as states that are currently too close to call as far as polling trends are concerned.

But perhaps the most shocking of all these tightly contested races is the one for New York Governor, with many polls now showing the once significant underdog, Republican Lee Zeldin now either polling even or slightly ahead of the highly controversial Democratic Incumbent Kathy Hochul, who has really taken a beating in the press of late after some extreme stances on key issues and a few head-scratching comments made during their public debate.

Despite a long stretch of Democratic rule, since former Republican Governor George Pataki’s last term ended in 2006, there is a serious chance that The Empire State just might return to red in January. So much so that Politico has also downgraded their forecast for that race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic.”

From what we’ve been able to assess, Zeldin’s strong emphasis on crime, an issue that voters across the state, but especially in New York City are listing as their most important issue, is the key motivating factor for the Republican challenger's late surge in the polls.

This late surge is also causing some disruption for other Democrats in 3 of the 12 House seats up for grabs across the state, which have also shown strong pushes toward the Republican side in recent weeks.

In other gubernatorial races, three other states Democrats had hoped to contend for have now changed from “Likely Republican” to Solidly Republican.” Those states are New Hampshire, Ohio, and Vermont.

Further, as Republicans close in on what is almost certainly going to be huge gains and a takeover of the House majority, there is one race where Democrats are seeing gains as we head into the home stretch of these mid-term elections.

In that race, incumbent GOP Rep. Steve Chabot is now the underdog to win reelection in his Cincinnati-based 1st District of Ohio against Democratic challenger Greg Landsman, as Politico forecasts move that race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.”

Of course, it is impossible to predict the results of any election, however, by concentrating our efforts on only reputable polling agencies with transparent polling methodologies, we can and most often do see more accurate polling results.

As always, The Veracity Report will keep you up to date on these and all races as we get closer to the polls closing across the nation.

Veracity Editor's Note:

This unbiased, non-satirical, fully attributed article was thoroughly researched by our team of fact-checkers and found to be accurate. The sources relied upon for the factual basis of this article were: Politico, Real Clear Politics, The Associated Press, Reuters, and veracityreport.org.

More information on this and all of our stories are available on our network website veracityreport.org.

This article was compiled and written by Investigative Reporter Crystal Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!

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