The Latest AJ-C Poll Shows Kemp Passing 51%, Enough to Avoid a Runoff with Democrat Stacey Abrams

The Veracity Report

However, although Republican Senatorial challenger Herschel Walker is also polling above incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock, he doesn't appear to be far enough ahead to avoid a runoff of his own

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With less than a week remaining until Election Day in this pivotal mid-term election which will determine, among other things, the balance of power in both chambers of Congress for at least the next two years, several candidates around the country are emerging as clear-cut favorites to win their respective seats according to the most reputable national polls.

Georgia is no exception to that, with both gubernatorial and Senatorial seats on the line in the Peach State, and the Senatorial seat having extreme national implications in determining the political party power balance in the US Senate for at least the next 2 years.

Currently, the US Senate is made up of 50 Republicans, 2 Independents, and 48 Democrats, however, since both independent candidates caucus with the Democrats, they are always most likely to vote on issues along Democrat party lines.

That means, with a 50/50 Senate seat split, the Vice President (Kamala Harris – a Democrat) casts the tie-breaking vote in all Senatorial voting that ends in a tie.

While every congressional election race is crucial, because of this structure, and the very even split currently in place, every one of these Senatorial races up for election in this cycle is even more vital than usual, with each carrying the potential to be the race that decides the balance of political power in the higher chamber of Congress for at least the next two years.

That’s because, even though Senate terms run for 6 years, the 100 senate seat election cycles are broken up so that about 1/3 of the seats are up for re-election every two years, with about 1/3 of those coming up for re-election concurrently with the Presidential elections and the other 2 cycles occurring as mid-term elections.

What’s more, in the state of Georgia, unlike most other states, there is a law on the books that states that any election where one of the candidates does not win by a majority of the voting electorate (receiving at least 50.1% of all the votes cast), that race must go to a 30-day runoff election between those two candidates where the people will have 30 days to vote again for their favorite candidate. The winner of that runoff then wins the seat, regardless of the percentage of the voting electorate received during the runoff.

In this present case, by all outward appearances, and now even more reinforced by this latest AJC poll, the race for Georgia Governor appears to be neatly in hand for incumbent Republican Brian Kemp, who is now polling at 51%, approximately 1% over the minimum total voting percentage necessary to avoid a runoff and be declared the winner on November 8th, or very shortly thereafter.

The same can’t be said for the much more nationally compelling race for Georgia’s second Senate seat. That race, between the brief incumbent, Democrat Raphael Warnock, and Georgia and pro-football legend Herschel Walker, is currently being led by Walker according to polls, however, none of the polls are reporting Walker with a lead that exceeds each respective poll’s margin of error, making the race a statistical dead heat tie.

Why this is important:

This is important because, as you would imagine, there will always be a certain percentage of people who vote in a general election that does not take the time to vote again in the runoff. However, It is always the hope that this loss of votes will be offset by the fact that any legally registered voter in the state can vote in the runoff, even if they did not vote in the general election, and that

That being the case, it is very unlikely, with less than a week to go before the general election, that either of Georgia’s Senatorial candidates will garner enough votes to avoid a runoff. That means that once it is officially determined that neither candidate received the required 50.1% of the total voting electorate, a 30-day runoff election will commence which will end around December 4th.

That means that depending upon the outcomes of all the other Senate race elections going on across the country next week, we may have to wait until mid-December to know for sure how the balance of power within the US Senate will shake out, at least until the next batch of Senatorial elections which will occur alongside the Presidential election of 2024.

Of course, nobody can accurately predict the outcome of an election, however, by looking at polls that are taken by reputable polling agencies using precise demographics, we can get a good feel for the momentum of a candidate and how the general voting public is reacting to their message.

The Veracity Report will be monitoring and reporting on these and other polls almost continuously between now and Election Tuesday on November 8th.

Veracity Editor's Note:

This unbiased, non-satirical, fully attributed article was thoroughly researched by our team of fact-checkers and found to be accurate. The sources relied upon for the factual basis of this article were: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Associated Press, Reuters, and veracityreport.org.

More information on this and all of our stories are available on our network website veracityreport.org.

This article was compiled and written by Chief Political Correspondent Kurt Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!

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