Opinion: Cheney vs Trump - Head to Head, We Take a Look at Who Might Win and Why

The Veracity Report

There are 3 possible scenarios, we will examine each one to see how it might turn out

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Image Courtesy of Newsweek

Preface:

To be perfectly clear, we here at The Veracity Report, do not believe Liz Cheney is ever going to run for any elected government office ever again.

While it is possible that some sympathetic future President may opt to appoint her to some cabinet position as a small token tribute to her family legacy, short of that, we are virtually certain her political career is now over. That's because, to be blunt, nobody - quite literally nobody, gets lambasted by almost 40 points, as an incumbent congressperson in their own home state, while occupying the same seat their father once held, and later finds some way to resurrect their political career.

Keep in mind, that Cheney lost by a 37.4 point margin after convincing state Democrats and Independents to change parties long enough to vote for her. Without that additional support, Liz loses that primary by an even larger margin.

Instead, we think it much more likely that Ms. Cheney will take up the talk-show circuit and try her hardest to embrace the title of the world's most pre-eminent Anti-Trump mouthpiece. We simply do not believe her ego -- (eg) (continues after the example quote)

("I emulate Abraham Lincoln, the founder of our party, who also lost tough elections for both the Senate and the House, before winning the most important election of all.")

-- could stomach a similar resounding defeat at the hands of the man she loathes above all else in life. A situation that is most likely to play out exactly that way should she try to challenge him in any manner of head-to-head competition.

However, if for some reason, Liz decides to disregard the advice of every sane and rational advisor she might encounter and challenge formal President Donald Trump to a mano e mano political duel, anyway, we feel that these are the most likely scenarios as well as their respective probabilities for success.

We have arranged the three most likely scenarios in the order from least likely, to most likely.

Scenario #3 (Least likely in our opinion):

Liz Cheney decides shortly after the conclusion of the November 8th mid-term elections (about the same time we expect Donald Trump to declare his candidacy) to throw her hat into the ring as a Republican, and challenge Trump in the Republican Primaries.

This would be monumentally foolish for Cheney for numerous reasons, not the least of which being that the Republican Party has already censured her and removed her from holding any leadership position within the House of Representatives.

While it is true that they cannot prevent her from running as a Republican despite the censure, her status in exile would prevent her from being able to benefit from the abundantly overflowing CPAC and Super PAC coffers which any non-censured Republican candidate would be able to take advantage of.

Further, running as a Republican would pose certain amusing challenges as they pertain to the GOP primary debate season.

While it is true that the party leadership can't keep her off the debate stage if she agrees to abide by the rules, it is interesting to note that the party can, and often does, require all participating debate candidates to sign documents agreeing to publicly support whichever candidate ultimately wins the primary in helping them forward, through the general election, as a unified part of the party.

We'll just give you a minute to mull that over for a second.

Exactly. It would indeed take a certain level of imagination to envision any scenario where Liz Cheney would sign a document agreeing to support Donald Trump should he be chosen as the people's choice to represent the party.

Would Trump support her if she won? Never in this lifetime, but, we believe he would still sign the document agreeing to do so just for the opportunity to get her on the debate stage. A situation that her supporters seem to think she cherishes and Trump fears, but we have information that tells us that exactly the opposite is true.

An additional detraction to this scenario for Cheney is that she would have to directly face the ire of pro-Trump Republicans who passionately dislike her. In other words, in order to be successful in a GOP Primary against Donald Trump, Liz would be betting that a significantly larger portion of the Republican party supports her and her anti-Trump position.

Quite frankly, there are very few upright-standing humans who would agree that she has influence over such a majority within the GOP.

Scenario #2:

Liz Cheney publicly goes back on everything she and her father have ever claimed they believe in and she changes parties to run as a Democrat.

First, this will infuriate the Democratic party electorate who already have their favorite candidates picked out, hoping they will make a run. The Nancy Pelosis, Chuck Schumers, Ralph Naders, and even the members of the squad, would never accept Liz Cheney becoming a Democrat and immediately assuming a leadership role within the party.

None of these hardline Democrats would ever even consider throwing their 'unwavering' support toward a lifelong Republican, from a family of lifelong Republcans, as she usurps complete authority over the Democratic Party and runs for President on their ticket, and pushing each of them down the line at least one peg, just to satisfy her own lust to beat Donald Trump at something - anything.

What's more, even if the entire Democratic party had no problem with this sudden paradigm shift and did throw their support behind her, many Democratic voters, almost all Independents, and countless Republicans and non-party affiliated people who rarely if ever vote at all, would immediately become energized to vote against her. Combined with the extremely large and completely solid support of pro-Trump Republicans, this would make him virtually impossible to beat.

Scenario #1 (The most likely, though still highly unlikely):

Liz Cheney declares herself an Independent and runs as a spoiler - ala Ross Perot.

In 1992, Independent Texas businessman and billionaire Ross Perot decided to run for President, against the incumbent Republican George H. W. Bush, and the Democratic challenger, Bill Clinton.

Despite having more than a couple of polls showing him to be winning, because of some controversies, Perot quit the race in June of 1992, though many believe it was because his campaign was bleeding money faster than he could count it, and he wanted to control the bleeding since, as an independent, he was financing much of his own campaign.

Sure enough, in October, only a few short weeks before the November 3rd general eelection, Perot re-entered the race, only to come in a predictable third. However, despite not seriously challenging Bush's 39 million-plus votes or Clinton's 44 million-plus, Ross Perot was able to attract enough attention in his split race campaign to garner slightly over 19 million votes of his own.

Because of this, many people believe that were it not for Ross Perot, an old Texas oil rival of the Bush family for decades, George H. W. would have won re-election to a second term.

Of course, this position assumes a lot of things. First, it assumes that the overwhelming majority of people who voted for Perot were Republicans who would have voted for Bush if Perot had not rejoined the race with only a few weeks left before the election.

Under this way of thinking, and if we assume that all independent voters take away from Republican vote tallies instead of Democratic ones, it makes sense to assume that while she could not hope to win, running for President as an independent would necessarily pull voted from Donald Trump's base and, at the very least, sabotage his chances for re-election against a very weak Democratic incumbent President or a stronger challenger if Biden elects not to run.

While that is one plausible explanation, it's also just as likely, if not more so, that most of the Independent candidates simply rob more votes from the sitting incumbents (regardless of which party is in power) than from anyone else. This also explains why Bush ended up succumbing to Clinton by about 4 million votes, while Perot collected almost 20 million.

In that 1992 scenario, we believe Bush Sr. lost re-election because he was the sitting President and therefore had the larger voter base as all incumbents always do. This is why incumbents almost always win when they run for re-election (incumbents have about a 70% success rate when running for re-election).

Applying that theory, along with other factors, we believe that either Biden, or whoever runs as the incumbent on the Democratic ticket in place of Biden, would have the most to lose if a popular or in this case, controversial Independent candidate with globs of name recognition, were to enter the race, handing Donald Trump, or whoever the Republican candidate is, the same type of comfortably easy victory Bil Clinton enjoyed over an incumbent President back in 1992.

Ironically, the three incumbents to lose elections in America by the largest margins in history are South Carolina's Bob Inglis, who lost by more than 41 points, Liz Cheney's 37.4 point loss to the Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman, and Tome Rice's loss to another Trump-backed challenger this year, Russell Fry by almost 28 points.

No matter how the 2024 primaries and election shake out, owning the second highest margin of incumbent defeat on record is not going to bode well for Liz Cheney under any scenario. This is only further complicated by the fact that in the last few weeks before her ill-fated GOP Wyoming primary, Liz publicly beseeched all Democratic and Independent voters within her embattled state to change parties temporarily, just so they could help her win.

We're not sure if it's more troubling that this is the first time in recorded history we can find where an incumbent congressperson did this, or that even with that help, she still lost by almost 40 points. Nevertheless, the fact remains that, despite emotional pleas and cat calls from the Trump-hating left, begging her to run for President in 2024, we can see no scenario that would either allow her to competitively challenge for the win or effectively usurp enough votes from Trump or any Republican candidate, to prevent them from winning.

For those reasons, even under the best-case scenarios, Liz Cheney's political career seems almost certainly over.

Compiled by Chief Political Correspondent Kurt Dillon - Because the Truth Matters!

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