Looking at the latest 4 polls from The NYT, Emerson, Trafalgar Group, and Harvard, all but the Times shows Trump beating Biden in a re-election rematch
Veracity Editor's Note to readers:
This non-satirical, un-opinionated, fully attributed, and unbiased article was compiled by the accredited and degreed veteran investigative reporter Kurt Dillon and is comprised of information compiled from the following sources: Real Clear Politics, The New York Times, Emerson College, Sienna College, The Trafalgar Group, and Harvard /Harris Polling.
According to the Real Clear Politics average, if the expected 2024 Trump/Biden rematch were to occur today, Trump would win with 44.5 percent of the vote to 43.5 percent for Biden.
That average is comprised from 4 recent polls, completed by four independent polling agencies over the last couple of weeks.
The first poll, conducted by Emerson College, shows that a large percentage of Americans are extremely displeased with the way the Biden administration has handled the Brittney Griner detainment in Russia. This poll has found that to be the most heavily weighted factor why those polled would vote for Trump over Biden if the election were to be held today, though it was far from the only reason.
The second poll, conducted by The Trafalgar Group, found that if the election were held today, and if Trump and Biden were the only two choices, 47.9 percent would vote for Donald Trump, while only 42.6 percent would vote for Joe Biden.
What’s perhaps even more telling in this poll, is that the polled sample consisted of 39.3 percent of respondents who identified as Democrats, 35.6% who identified as Republicans, and 25.1% who identified as non-partisan, or ‘other’, as their party affiliation. Even more surprising was that, of those 39.3 percent identifying as Democrats, almost a full 20% of that number (19.6%) would vote for Donald Trump if the election were held today. The poll, however, offers no explanation as to why.
Next is the now-notorious New York Times/Sienna College poll that shows that most democrats don’t want Joe Biden to be the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. Despite that truth and combined with the revelation that the current president’s disapproval rating had eclipsed the 61% threshold for the first time in history, this poll maintains that if the election were held today, Biden would defeat Trump by about 3 percentage points, 44 percent to 41 percent. Then again, it is the New York Times.
Lastly, The Harvard/Harris poll, boasts the largest test sample, having received responses from a total of 1,308 actually registered voters, (RVs) as opposed to those deemed ‘likely’ to vote (LVs).
This poll also shows Trump defeating Biden by about 3 percentage points, 43% to 40% if the election were held today.
It also bares mentioning that when evaluating the Real Clear Politics average indices, the site shows the results of these Trump vs Biden presidential rematch polls dating all the way back to August of 2021.
In that list of 31 polls, conducted by 11 different polling agencies, over a period of the last year, only 6 of the 31 turned out favorable to Biden. Except for 2 ties, Trump came out on top in each of the other 24 contests.
Perhaps even more indicative of the country’s political presidential ‘temperature’ are the margins of victory in many of these polls. For example, in the polls where Trump came out ahead, several showed a margin of victory equal to or greater than 10 percentage points, with one poll showing Trump would win by a staggering 13 percentage points.
Conversely, the largest margin of victory in any Biden prevailing poll was only 3 percentage points. Equally telling, is that of the 6 wins for Biden among these polls, 3 of them were only by 1 percentage point.
Compiled by Investigative Reporter Kurt Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!