Latest July 1 Poll: Biden v Trump

The Veracity Report

In the latest Emerson College poll, if the 2024 presidential election were to be held today, Trump would win by 5 percentage points

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Author’s Note

This non-satirical, un-opinionated, fully attributed, and completely unbiased article was written by the accredited and degreed veteran investigative reporter Kurt Dillon and is comprised of information compiled from the following sources: Real Clear Politics, and Emerson College Polling.

The most recent Emerson College national poll of US voters finds a majority of American voters disapprove of President Biden. That’s nothing new, however, for the first time in his presidency, Biden’s disapproval rating sits at a full 13 points higher than his approval rating. According to these July 1st numbers, Biden has a 40% job approval, while 53% disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

As you can see in the chart below, Congress, and the Supreme Court are also currently viewed unfavorably by the voting public, with Congressional disapproval topping the list of discord by a significant margin. The US Congress has a 19% job approval, while 70% disapprove of the job they are doing. The Supreme Court has a 36% job approval; 54% disapprove.

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Image Courtesy of Emerson College Polling

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said, “Independent voters align more with Democrats on Supreme Court approval: 71% of Democrats and 58% of Independents disapprove of the job that the Supreme Court is doing whereas a majority, 56%, of Republicans approve of the job they are doing.”

In the 2022 November Midterm Elections, 46% of voters plan to vote for the Republican congressional candidate on the ballot while 43% plan to support the Democratic congressional candidate. This congressional ballot test has remained relatively stagnant since last month’s national poll, where Republicans also led by three points on the congressional ballot, 45% to 42%.

Looking at 2024, 64% of Democratic primary or caucus voters think President Biden should be the Democratic nominee for president, while 36% think he should not be. In the 2024 Republican Primary, 55% of voters would support former President Trump, 20% Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and 9% former Vice President Mike Pence. No other potential GOP candidate clears 5%.

In a hypothetical 2024 Presidential Election matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump holds 44% support while Biden has 39% support; 12% would vote for someone else and 5% are undecided. “Since last month, Trump has held his share of support while Biden’s support has reduced four points.”

Following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn its 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which leaves abortion legality up to the states, 59% of voters think that Congress should pass a law legalizing the right to abortion. Among women, support for the legislation is higher: 62% think Congress should pass a law legalizing the right to abortion compared to 55% of men.

“While a majority, 65%, of Republicans oppose Congress passing a law to legalize the right to abortion, the policy has majority support among Democrats and Independent voters, 81% of Democratic voters and 58% of Independent voters support federal legislative action to legalize abortion,” Kimball said.

Congressional legalization of the right to abortion has the highest support among 18-29-year-olds: 76% support federal legalization of abortion, compared to 59% of 30-49-year-olds, 50% of 50-64-year-olds, and 56% of those over 65.

A majority, 57%, say that they or someone that they’ve known have had an abortion. Among those who have had or know someone who has had an abortion, 62% think Congress should pass a law legalizing the right to abortion.

The January 6th hearings have had a split impact on voters’ intention to vote for Donald Trump in 2024 if he were to run: 35% say it makes them less likely, 32% say it makes them more likely, 28% say it makes no difference.

The economy is the most important issue to 58% of voters, a nine-point increase since the Emerson May national poll. The only other issue to reach double digits is healthcare at 11%.

Heading into the Fourth Of July Weekend, one in three (33%) say they have changed travel plans due to the high cost of gas. Regarding airfare, 18% have changed plans because of issues with plane travel.

Regarding recent gun safety legislation passed by Congress, 48% of voters think it will have a major (16%) or some (32%) difference on the amount of gun violence in the US, while 42% think it will make no difference; 10% had not heard of the legislation.

Listen to Poll It Together: an Emerson College Polling Podcast.

Caller ID

The Emerson College Polling National poll of voters was conducted June 28-29, 2022. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,271, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, region, age, education, and race/ethnicity-based on 2022 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines and an online panel provided by CloudResearch.

Reported by Investigative Reporter Kurt Dillon - Because the Truth Matters!

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