A financial red flag is waving in California as personal income tax revenue has fallen upwards of 11%.
As Bloomberg noted, this is the "the latest warning sign for the finances of a state whose fortunes are closely tied to the performance of markets."
California's actual tax revenue through August, the second month of the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was 8% below projections according to an official release from the California Department of Finance.
State officials went on to note that "August is not a significant month for personal income tax cash receipts, except for withholding, which is significant every month. Notably, withholding receipts fell $700 million short of projections in August, or 9.1 percent. This was the third consecutive month that withholding receipts fell below forecast and followed a $731-million, or 10.1-percent, shortfall in July and a $437 million, or 5.8-percent, shortfall in June."
Furthermore, it is worth noting that corporation tax cash receipts in the month of August were 19% below their projected $426 million sum.
Additionally, the state's Department of Finance shared that sales and use tax receipts were 4.5% below their projection in August, falling for the third consecutive month.
In recent months, financial experts have been deeply concerned about the potential for a recession in the United States.
On an earnings call, the CEO reportedly stated that the probability of a "soft landing" are, in his estimation, about 10% and the probability of a "harder landing" or "mild recession" are between 20% and 30%, per the JP Morgan's projections.
Dimon also reportedly estimated that the likelihood of a "harder recession" or "something worse" also ranges from 20% to 30%.
Given California's close ties to market performance, falling revenue in the Golden State is certainly something for investors nationwide to watch closely.
What do you think about California's financial red flag?
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