Winter Storm Warnings are posted for Coastal & Southern New Jersey (mainly south of Route 195, westward into Eastern Pennsylvania and Southward into Maryland and Northern Delaware. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect elsewhere for Northern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island. Also much of Pennsylvania is under a Winter Weather Advisory.
Above is my final snow forecast which i came out with last night. I did a little adjusting to snow amounts and remain well on the low side of the National Weather Service forecast snow amounts. I see a max are of 3 to perhaps some local amounts over 5 inches from Southwest New Jersey and Southeast Pennsylvania southwestward to Northeastern Maryland including Baltimore. Up and down the New Jersey coast I went 2 to 3 inches with some pockets that could be closer to 4 in some places away from the ocean. 1 to perhaps 2 (but probably closer to the 1 inch) for areas from NYC northwest into the Catskills and east to Long Island. A coating to an inch or so for much of Southern and Southeast New England.
During the last several runs of weather models the area of accumulating snow has continues to shift southward and we can see the signature on the regionalr radar as snow advances northeastward from Virginia. This is only going to get so far north as dry air over New England is going to hold firm and we have a weather system that is going more east than north. All of this will be ending from northwest to southeast between 4 and 7pm. Temperatures today will be in the 20s to near 30 and look for temperatures to fall into the mid 20s in areas where it is snowing hard enought. Behind this storm the next and last shot of arctic air of the recent pattern will move in as northerly winds become strong and gusty overnight and skies clear.
Saturday morning lows will be in the low to middle teens in most places. Saturday will be a day of sunshine but we are going to be dealing with a gusty northerly wind of 20 to 30 mph at times and also temperatures that won't be much above 20 to 25 degrees in most places. Effective wind chills witll be in the low teens to single digits. The core of this cold air mass will be along the East Coast Saturday and Saturday night. Skies will be mostly clear but it will still be on the windy side overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. Lows by Sunday morning will be in the single digits inland and low to mid teens elsewhere. Wind chills will once again be down in the single digits.
Sunday will still be a day of gusty winds and sunshine but we should start to see temperatures edge a little higher though we may be still struggling to get back to the freezing mark. Sunday highs will be in the upper 20s with some warm spots possibly breaking above 30 degrees. Next week brings about a warming trend as the arctic flow from Canada abates and we see a general pattern of higher than average temperatures. However we need to keep a close eye on a series of cold high pressure areas that will be building into Eastern Canada and New England next week. Some of that colder air could bleed southward mid and late week into the Northern Mid Atlantic states creating complications with approaching weather systems from the west and south. Enjoy the very cold weekend ahead!