Phoenix, AZ

Housing Crash: Zillow Says the Average Phoenix Home is Down 6.6% in the Past Year

Mark Hake

Zillow reports that the average Phoenix home is now down 6.6% in the past year. The average price is now just over $419K ($419,088).

This is for data through Sept. 30, 2023. The peak was July 2022 when the average home sold for $454,002.

Remarkably, September's average figure of $419K is up from a low of $405,902 at the end of April 30. That represented a crash of 10.59%.
Average Phoenix home pricesPhoto byZillow

So, through the spring and summer of 2023, the average prices of Phoenix homes have risen by 3.25%. That represents the increase from $405.9K in April 2023 to $419K by the end of Sept. 30, 2023.

Interest Rate Hikes Could Dampen Prices Again

This is despite a rise in interest rates during the period.

Since the end of June 30-year fixed mortgage rates have risen from 7.10% to over 8% today (8.09%).
30-year fixed mortgage ratesPhoto

This does not portend good things for the future of home prices.

It's possible that if rates continue to rise home prices could face further downward pressure.

For example, the CPI inflation rate has recently risen. Over the last 12 months, the CPI index increased by 3.7 percent before seasonal adjustment.

This was up from 3.0% for the CPI index in June 2023.

That means that the Federal Reserve could be tempted to have to raise interest rates again.

The Fed Could Raise Rates Again

The Fed will meet on Oct. 31 through Nov. 1, 2023. They will decide whether to raise rates again. It held the Fed funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50% during its last Sept. 2023 FOMC meeting.

Since then GDP (Gross Domestic Product) came in very strong. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said current dollar GDP rose 8.5% at an annual rate in Q3. This was up from 3.8% in Q2.

Moreover, the price index for gross domestic purchases during Q3 was 3.0% on an annual rate. That was up from 1.4% in Q2.

So there are plenty of reasons why the Fed might raise rates, especially if inflation continues to surge.

That could be very harmful to the average Phoenix home price.


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Mark R. Hake, CFA, writes articles on national and local news, stocks, and market events at,,, and as well as TalkMarkets.

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Mark Hake is a financial analyst, investor, and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He writes about US and foreign stocks and wealth, financial, and economic issues. He previously ran his own hedge fund and investment research firm and is presently Chief Strategy Officer for Foldstar Inc. and

Phoenix, AZ

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