Hurricane Season: El Niño's Impact

Mark Hake
HurricanePhoto byBrian McGowanonUnsplash

Warm weather brought on by the El Niño weather phenomenon could agitate and activate many Atlantic Ocean hurricanes near the U.S.

It could make the 2023 hurricane season more active.

That is the prognosis from NOAA, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. In a recent update, NOAA said that there could be as many as 20 storms, 10 of which could become hurricanes.

NOAA forecasters said there is now a 60% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season.
NOAA weather predictionsPhoto byNOAA

This can be seen in the pie chart above that NOAA published in August.

How El Niño Affects Hurricanes

El Niño weather patterns are typically associated with high winds and high sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

Normally, these winds can reduce the probability of hurricanes. This is because the winds affect the tops of storms before they start circulating. So El Niño tends to limit the number of storms.

However, the high SSTs can act to counteract this lower wind shear effect. But this effect has apparently already been played out.

"A below-normal wind shear forecast, slightly below-normal Atlantic trade winds, and a near- or above-normal West African Monsoon were also key factors in shaping this updated seasonal forecast."
Photo byNOAA

NOAA has started using a new model to forecast hurricanes. It remains to be seen how well this new model will be in predicting Atlantic storms.


Don't forget to hit the "Thumbs up" button and also the "Follow" button below. You can also download the Newsbreak app to become a Registered Follower.

That way you can see all my prior articles. Click on the link underneath my profile name above.

Mark R. Hake, CFA, writes articles on national and local news, stocks, and market events at,,, and as well as TalkMarkets.

This is original content from NewsBreak’s Creator Program. Join today to publish and share your own content.

Comments / 0

Published by

Mark Hake is a financial analyst, investor, and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He writes about US and foreign stocks as well as cryptos, hedge funds, and private equity. He previously ran his own hedge fund, investment research firm, and acted as CFO for a fintech startup. He focuses on finding value, arbitrage, and hidden asset opportunities.

Phoenix, AZ

More from Mark Hake

Comments / 0