Phoenix, AZ

Some Don't Believe Goldman Sachs Report that Phoenix Will Experience a 2008 Real Estate Crash

Mark Hake

Much has been made of the well-reported Goldman Sachs report that Phoenix will be one of 4 cities that will have a 2008-style price crash.

According to one source, Goldman says interest rates will stay up longer. The investment banking firm notified clients it predicts the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will rise to 6.5% for year-end 2023.

However, Shawn Shackelton disagreed with this assessment on her Youtube vlog today on the Goldman Sachs report. She said that new numbers due out soon for the end of the year will show a decline not as bad as predicted.

She also referred to a Zonda Home report that its peak-to-trough model foresees a drop of just 15% in U.S. real estate prices. They have even recently revised this prediction based on how quickly buyers and sellers "find the market."

The Market Has Bottomed

The market has already dropped 13% from peak to trough according to Shackelton. She also says that buyers seem to have gotten more comfortable with a 6% interest rate mortgage market. Some have been able to lower that to the 5% range with adjustable-rate mortgages.

As a result, not everyone is convinced that more dark days are ahead for the Phoenix housing market. According to Redfin, prices in the Phoenix market were down just 1.4% in Dec 2022 with a median price of $410K.

Moreover, the Cromford Market Index, a popular Phoenix area index for both the buy and sell side, was at 114.6 as of Jan. 2023. This is up from 104.9 on Sept. 21, and a trough price of 89.2 on Nov. 18, when this author previously wrote about the Phoenix real estate activity NewsBreak.

In other words, the market seems to be rebounding. Goldman Sachs may have already missed the bottom, at least for the Phoenix market.


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Mark R. Hake, CFA, writes articles on national and local news, stocks, and market events at,,, and as well as TalkMarkets.

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Mark Hake is a financial analyst, investor, and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He writes about US and foreign stocks as well as cryptos, hedge funds, and private equity. He previously ran his own hedge fund, investment research firm, and acted as CFO for a fintech startup. He focuses on finding value, arbitrage, and hidden asset opportunities.

Phoenix, AZ

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