As the pivotal 2022 Midterm elections are finally upon us, it doesn’t look like the Kemp/Abrams 2022 rematch will be as close as the 2018 version
First, in keeping with our commitment to sharing only the most reliable source information, it’s important for us to explain that The Veracity Report only considers polls that have been conducted by reputable polling agencies nationwide.
Staying consistent with that mission, we only consider polls that transparently share their methodologies, demographics, total number of respondents, whether they are “likely voters” or “registered voters”, and their respective margins of error. It is also our policy to attempt to use several polls as source information in all our articles whenever possible (sometimes there is only one available), and also to directly link our readers to those respective polls so they can see for themselves that we have not manipulated the data or results of those polls in any way.
That being established, as most of you are probably aware, when these two candidates first faced off in Georgia’s 2018 Gubernatorial race, that election came down to the wire, only narrowly avoiding the Georgia law that requires all state and local candidates to accumulate at least 50.1% of the total votes cast in order to avoid a 30-day runoff election.
That burden was satisfied when Kemp received 50.2% of the total voting electorate and ended up winning that race by only 54,723 votes - the smallest majority in Georgia since 1966.
Of course, in that race, neither candidate had much of a track record to run on, and because of that, the general election turned out to be the proverbial photo-finish, with now Governor Brian Kemp coming out on top albeit amid a flurry of controversy.
Fast forward 4 years and Kemp/Abrams 2.0 doesn’t appear to be anywhere near as close as the 2018 race was. There are many possible reasons for this, but at least some part of that is most likely the fact that, after 4 years as governor, Brian Kemp has done a respectable job according to most Georgians, particularly with his handling of the pandemic and being among the first governors to reopen schools, public buildings, jobs, and the government.
According to all of the polls we found which meet our standards for transparency and reliability, here’s what we found.
On 10/23 this Daily Wire/ Trafalgar Group poll, had Kemp up by 7 points, 52% to 45% - more than enough to avoid a runoff election.
On 10/24, Rasmussen Polling showed Kemp was up by 10 points, 51% to 41%, still a large enough tally to avoid a runoff.
On 10/27, this New York Times / Sienna College poll showed Kemp at a flat 50% and Abrams at 45%, with Kemp still up by 5 points, but not necessarily by enough of a total to avoid the runoff.
Also on 10/27, this Fox 5/Insider Advantage poll had Kemp at 52% and Abrams at 43%, a 9-point lead with plenty enough of the total electorate to avoid a runoff.
On 10/30, Fox News conducted another Insider Advantage poll which found Kemp to be at 50% and Abrams at 43%. Still a substantial lead, but not necessarily give him enough of the voting electorate to avoid the runoff.
On Halloween, The Hill/Emerson College Polling found that Kemp was polling at 52% and Abrams at 46%. Only a 6-point advantage for Kemp, but enough to avoid the runoff.
On 11/2, WXIA-TV and Survey USA’s poll found Kemp also to be at 52%, with Abrams at 45%. Still only a 7-point advantage for the Governor, but also still enough to end the race on election day.
However, most recently, beginning also on 11/2, Remington Research and Marist Polling released two polls which showed that Kemp’s lead over Abrams not only began to grow by margin but also by the size of his percentage of the total electorate.
In the Remington poll, they found Kemp to be polling above Abrams by a staggering 14 points, at 55% to 41%.
In the Marist poll, they only reported Kemp’s lead at 8 points, however, his total piece of the voter pie was still 53% to 45%.
Of course, it is impossible to predict the results of any election, however, by concentrating our efforts on only reputable polling agencies with transparent polling methodologies, we can and most often do see more accurate polling results.
As always, The Veracity Report will keep you up to date on these and all races as we get closer to the polls closing across the nation.
Veracity Editor's Note:
This unbiased, non-satirical, fully attributed article was thoroughly researched by our team of fact-checkers and found to be accurate. The sources relied upon for the factual basis of this article were: Real Clear Politics, Daily Mail/Trafalgar Group, Rasmussen Polling, NY Times/Sienna College Polling, Fox 5 Insider Advantage, Fox News, WXIA-TV/Survey USA, Remington Research, Marist Polling, The Associated Press, Reuters, and veracityreport.org.
More information on this and all our stories are available on our network website veracityreport.org.
This article was compiled and written by Chief Political Correspondent Kurt Dillon – Because the Truth Matters!
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