Two NFC South division rivals will meet for the second time in three weeks when the Atlanta Falcons travel to the Sunshine State to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Despite being eliminated from postseason contention, the Falcons have been playing teams tough down the stretch. Tampa Bay will look to clinch the 5-seed in the NFC with a win. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks are in favor of the home team.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Falcons vs Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.
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Falcons vs Buccaneers Game Info
Atlanta Falcons (4-11, 2-5 Away) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5, 4-3 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 3, 2020
Time: 1 p.m. EST
Venue: Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
Attendance: Roughly 16,000 fans will be allowed to attend.
Falcons vs Buccaneers NFL Odds + NFL Picks
Opening Lines: Buccaneers -4.5; O/U 50.5
Moneyline: ATL: (+260) | TB: (-320)
Spread: ATL: +7 (-105) | TB: -7 (-115)
Total: 50 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
All odds courtesy of MyBookie SportsbookFalcons vs Buccaneers Overview
You have to give Raheem Morris some credit for having a game plan and getting the Falcons to show up every week. Whether he remains Atlanta’s head coach beyond this season remains to be seen, but there is a lot to like about what he has done. Unfortunately, the Falcons still cannot seem to finish games outright even as they’ve covered as NFL picks underdogs. This was never more evident than against these same Buccaneers just two weeks ago. A 17-0 halftime lead evaporated and the Falcons lost the game outright. Granted the secondary suffered some major injuries that enabled Tampa’s passing attack to explode in the second half, but Matt Ryan and the offense need to be more effective over a full four quarters.
The Buccaneers have already secured their spot in the postseason, but you can bet your top dollar that Tom Brady and Co. would love to secure the 5-seed with a Week 17 victory. The difference between being the 5-seed as opposed to the 6 or 7 in the NFC playoffs is massive when you consider an NFC East champion with a losing record would be their Wild Card matchup. If the Bucs’ passing attack looks anything like it did in the second half against Atlanta two weeks ago and in last week’s game against Detroit, Tampa should be just fine as NFL picks favorites.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Betting Trends
- Falcons 2020 Betting Trends: 7-8 ATS; 6-9 to the Over
- Buccaneers 2020 Betting Trends: 8-7 ATS; 8-7 to the Over
- Road teams have been the outright winners in five of the last six head-to-head meetings between the Falcons and Buccaneers.
- The Falcons are 6-2 straight up and 5-3 ATS in their last eight head-to-head games against the Buccaneers.
- The Over has cashed in each of the last five and eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Falcons and Buccaneers.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Stats
- Atlanta has averaged 25.1 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 16 in the NFL)
- Atlanta has surrendered 18.4 PPG this season (No. 1 in the NFL)
- Tampa Bay has averaged 26.9 PPG this season (No. 11 in the NFL)
- Tampa Bay has surrendered 30.1 PPG this season (No. 29 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for the entire Week 17 slate. Here is one that I like for the Falcons vs Buccaneers game.
Tom Brady has been on a tear of late, easily topping 300 yards passing in each of Tampa Bay’s last two games, including against the Falcons in Week 15. With Atlanta being a much better one defense than they are against the pass, there’s no reason to think Brady won’t have another big yardage game on Sunday. As for Calvin Ridley, how you go against him in NFL picks this season? The third-year pro has been outstanding all year, and has sailed over 100 yards receiving in each of the last four weeks. With Julio Jones ruled out for Week 17, Ridley will once again be the go-to option for Matt Ryan.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3x your buy-in.
It’s clear that the NFL picks market is taking into account the importance of this game for the Buccaneers from a seeding standpoint. The opening NFL odds of Tampa Bay laying 4.5 points has ballooned to a full touchdown. At the same time, it’s interesting to see the total trickle down just a touch. Typically, larger spreads would correlate with a higher over/under.
In a way, this divisional clash feels like déjà vu to the first time these teams met two weeks ago. That line also steamed up in favor of the Buccaneers as an NFL picks road favorite. We are looking at a near-identical spread for this contest with the Bucs at home, suggesting some correction. As good as Tom Brady and Tampa looked last week, I’m not putting much stock in a blowout win over the hapless Lions at this point. Atlanta played Kansas City right down to the wire, and I expect the Falcons to once again show up for their season finale. This line has moved too far in my opinion and I’ll happily put a full touchdown’s worth of points in my pocket.
Pick: Falcons +7 (-105 at MyBookie Sportsbook )