In this Christmas Day NFL special, the Minnesota Vikings travel to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints. The Vikings, who are in must-win mode if they hope to make the postseason, have had the Saints number when it’s mattered in recent years. New Orleans has already clinched their ticket to the playoffs and can wrap up an NFC South Division title with a win. The NFL odds and expert NFL picks for this Christmas Day showdown favor the home team.
This betting preview contains the NFL odds, key betting trends, prop bets, and best NFL picks for Vikings vs Saints on Christmas Day.
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Vikings vs Saints Game Info
Minnesota Vikings (6-8, 3-3 Away) at New Orleans Saints (10-4, 5-2 Home)
Date: Friday, Dec. 25, 2020
Time: 4:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Coverage: FOX, NFL Network
Attendance: About 3,000 fans will be allowed to attend.
Vikings vs Saints NFL Odds + NFL Picks
Opening Lines: Saints -7.5; O/U 52.5
Moneyline: MIN: (+275) | NO: (-350)
Spread: MIN: +7 (-105) | NO: -7 (-115)
Total: 51 — Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
After starting the season off 1-5, the Vikings rebounded to win five of their next six games and take over the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC following play in Week 13. Back-to-back NFL picks losses later and Minnesota now sits two games out with only two to play. Last week’s home loss to the NFC North rival Chicago Bears was very disappointing, to say the least. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson all put up impressive stat lines, but it still wasn’t enough. Minnesota’s defense, which had been playing better throughout the second half of the year, got torched for 33 points. The Vikings will need a much better showing against the potent Saints offense on Friday.
The Saints welcomed back Drew Brees last week, but it still wasn’t enough to dethrone the mighty Kansas City Chiefs in a game that many considered to be a Super Bowl LV preview. New Orleans is a single win or Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss away from clinching the division, and you can bet that Sean Payton would love to take care of that on Christmas to be able to rest his stars in the regular season finale. The Vikings’ young secondary is ripe for exploitation in this NFL picks matchup, but Brees will be without top wideout Michael Thomas, who is set to finish the regular season on injured reserve.
Vikings vs Saints Betting Trends
- Vikings 2020 Betting Trends: 6-8 ATS; 9-5 to the Over
- Saints 2020 Betting Trends: 7-7 ATS; 9-5 to the Over
- The outright winner has also covered ATS in six of the last seven head-to-head meetings between the Vikings and Saints.
- The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games.
- Five of the Saints’ last seven games have gone under the total.
Vikings vs Saints Stats
- Minnesota has averaged 25.7 points per game (PPG) this season (No. 14 in the NFL)
- Minnesota has surrendered 27.7 PPG this season (No. 25 in the NFL)
- New Orleans has averaged 28.4 PPG this season (No. 9 in the NFL)
- New Orleans has surrendered 21.2 PPG this season (No. 6 in the NFL)
Monkey Knife Fight is a DFS site unlike DraftKings or FanDuel. Instead, the contests feature props to play, with varying multipliers for each contest. Unlike the aforementioned sites, you are only competing with yourself when making NFL picks on MKF, and you do not need to worry about annoying salary caps.
Monkey Knife Fight has several great NFL props for both this Christmas Day matchup and the entire Week 16 slate. Here is one that I like for the Vikings vs Saints game.
Minnesota may be in desperation mode when it comes to their postseason hopes, but banking NFL picks on Kirk Cousins to throw them to a Christmas Day victory is far from wise. On the season, the Saints defense is allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game to opposing QBs at 210.9. That’s well below the threshold for Cousins’ passing yardage in this Monkey Knife Fight NFL props contest, so I’ll opt for the Under.
On the flip side, I’ll happily take the Over on the NFL picks line of 65.5 rushing yards for Alvin Kamara. The Vikings haven’t been as proficient at stopping opposing RBs as you might believe, surrendering over 125 rushing yards per game. Kamara was limited to 11 carries last week as New Orleans was forced to play from behind against the Kansas City Chiefs. Even so, he still posted 54 yards (4.9 per carry). I expect a much different game script and ample opportunity for the star back to produce on Christmas.
Picking both yardage totals correctly would win you 3.5x your buy-in.
We’ve seen limited line movement on this game from the opening numbers. The spread has only dropped a half-point from the opening Saints -7.5 to -7, while the total has trickled down all of a point to the current 51 at most shops as well.
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and the Vikings are certainly in a state of desperation. Unfortunately, the Vikings failed to rise to the occasion in each of the last two weeks and are now clinging to faint playoff hopes. The Saints are the deserving favorite here at home, but the full touchdown spread is too rich for my liking.
My preferred betting angle for this game is on the total, especially with the lines at several books still sitting a touch higher than the Las Vegas market. Given the current state of the betting market, I would expect the over/under line to continue to drop. Each of the last two head-to-head meetings between the Saints and Vikings has gone Under the total. In an NFL season where playing defense has seemed to be optional on many occasions, I like this game to stay under the 50-point threshold.