Los Angeles, CA

Will Delta in Los Angeles mirror the surprisingly early peak in the UK?

Eugene Adams

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Over a year into the pandemic, there is still a lot we don't know about Covid. In fact, whenever we think we know something, the opposite often turns out to be true. 

In many ways, Covid has not been as bad as we thought it would be. 

In other ways, it’s been worse than we expected. 

Los Angeles reinstated their mask mandate expecting the Delta variant to be bad. 

Current U.K. data gives us hope that we could be wrong again. 

The U.K.

The number of cases in the U.K. is falling much sooner than expected

Last week, many experts expected the country to hit 100,000 new cases per day. There was also fear that they might hit 200,000 per day by the end of the summer

Those fears have not materialized. In fact, the opposite is happening.

On July 17th, there were 54,000 new cases in the U.K. 

On Sunday, there were 28,652.

Since Delta hit the United Kingdom before America, there is hope that our surge will follow a similar path. 

“In the United Kingdom … cases are clearly coming down at this point. If the U.K. is turning the corner, it’s a pretty good indication that maybe we’re further into this than we think, and maybe we’re two or three weeks away from starting to see our own plateau here in the United States.”-Dr. Scott Gottlieb

Other Delta Information

There is still a lot we don’t know about the Delta variant. But here are a couple of things we do know. 

Symptoms

The symptoms of Delta seem to be a little different than we have come to expect

“It seems like cough and loss of smell are less common. And headache, sore throat, runny nose, and fever are present based on the most recent surveys in the U.K.”-Dr. Inci Yildirim

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, compared Delta symptoms to “a bad cold.”

One thing we don’t know is why the symptoms seem to be different. One guess is that it tends to affect younger people. 

That makes sense because while Los Angeles adults are highly vaccinated, children are not. 

Transmissibility 

There have been many Covid variants during this pandemic. The Delta variant has been the scariest by far. 

The reason so many experts worry about Delta is that it seems to be much more contagious. 

According to the CDC, vaccinated individuals had lower viral loads with previous variants and couldn’t transmit the virus to others. 

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be true with the Delta variant. Both vaccinated, and unvaccinated people have similar viral loads. 

The possibility of vaccinated transmission is a huge reason Los Angeles felt like it needed to reinstate its mask mandate. 

My Thoughts

There was a point in time where we thought Los Angeles was close to returning to normal. 

Unfortunately, we have since taken what feels like a step back. 

Hopefully, like in the U.K., the Delta surge will peak soon.

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Certified Personal Trainer | Certified ESL Teacher |I mostly write about all things Southern California, but I also cover national topics.

Los Angeles, CA
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