Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has warned that Iran has now amassed enough material that they can create several nuclear weapons. According to Director General Grossi, the West should step up its efforts to engage diplomatically with Iran to ensure that they do not follow through in creating these weapons. Though headed to Tehran for a visit in February to pursue political dialogue with the Iranian regime, the fact is that the nuclear deal signed with Iran in 2015 called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is in shambles.
A landmark accord between Iran and several countries, most notably the United States, in July of 2015, the agreement stipulated that Iran dismantle much of its nuclear program as well as open up these facilities to international inspectors and in exchange their country would receive billions of dollars in sanctions relief. Supporters of the deal stated that it would help reduce the likelihood of conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, namely Saudi Arabia and Israel. When President Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, however, Iran has since violated the terms of the accord in retaliation. Since assuming office, President Biden has indicated that the United States would be willing to return to the deal if Iran returned to compliance, but as of yet this has not occurred.
Part of the issue in returning to the accord is that the motivations to attain nuclear weapons in Iran remain appealing to a degree. Possessing a nuclear weapon would help Iranian leaders deter an attack by its enemies, namely the United States. Moreover, with the weakening of Iraq in the region and a higher probability of turmoil with Saudi Arabia, the possession of nuclear weapons would be a new potent tool for Iranian efforts to increase their influence and power in the Gulf.
Though the European Union has helped mediate indirect talks between the United States and Iran, with the aim of restoring the JCPOA, negotiations have stalled due to Iran wanting additional guarantees. In addition, the nationwide protests following the death of Mahsa Jina Amini in Iran have further inhibited focus on a nuclear deal, as Iran’s leadership have become consumed with concerns closer to home and has resulted in more executions and violence in an attempt to crackdown on the protests.
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