"The government’s monthly jobs report Friday is anticipated to show U.S. private payrolls climbing about 300,000 in August, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold at 3.5%, matching a 50-year low.The report also includes fresh insights into wage growth. Those who changed jobs experienced a 16.1% pay increase from August 2021, more than twice the 7.6% gain for those who stayed at their job." —Reade Pickert
"U.S. companies increased headcount at a relatively sluggish pace in August, according to a revamped private report that suggests hiring is downshifting in an economy buffeted by high inflation and rising interest rates." —Reade Pickert
Businesses' payrolls rose by 132,000 in August.
"Businesses’ payrolls rose 132,000 this month after a nearly 270,000 gain in July, according to newly compiled data from ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab. The latest report reflects updated methodology." —Reade Pickert
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 300,000 gain—in private employment.
"The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 300,000 gain in private employment." —Reade Pickert
The figures are based on payroll transactions of more than 25 million U.S. workers.
"The figures, which are based on payroll transactions of more than 25 million U.S. workers, offer a supplementary view of labor market conditions ahead of the government’s monthly jobs report. Economists will likely take ADP’s data into account, along with a slew of other labor market indicators, when determining to what extent the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of monetary tightening is impacting the health of the broader jobs market." —Reade Pickert
The current data signifies a shift towards a slower pace of hiring.
“Our data suggests a shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy’s conflicting signals...We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.” — Nela Richardson (Chief Economist at ADP)
Payroll gains were concentrated in specific industries, as were payroll cuts.
"Payroll gains were concentrated in leisure and hospitality, trade, transportation and utilities, as well as construction. Employers cut jobs in finance, information, business services and education and health services." —Reade Pickert