Thunderstorms Forecast in North Dakota

Bryan Dijkhuizen

Despite the fact that most of the storms in the southern Red River Valley have passed over MLCAPE's instability axis, satellite and radar trends continue to suggest a weakening pattern with the storms in the southern Red River Valley.

There are also a few remaining outflow barriers advecting northwest that may be seen on satellite and radar imagery. This isn't precisely in the most advantageous position for continued expansion, since bulk shear vectors are more oriented west-to-east, which is more suitable for further development.

The possibility of localized severe weather developing in upstream showers and thunderstorms during the next several hours exists, while it is not likely. Because low-level flow is noticeably light, the danger of a tornado should be much reduced in this area.

Storms that develop outside these borders are expected to produce hail and destructive wind gusts, which will be the primary danger of this situation.

Aloft, southwest flow with good moisture return is still in place, while the next strong system arrives late tonight through Monday when large-scale forces will combine with anomalous moisture and at least some instability to produce widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms across the country.

The likelihood of 1 inch or more of rainfall is high, while the likelihood of 2 inches or more is 30-50 percent based on predictions from the National Weather Service.

However, because of the potential for significant deformation and instability, there is a strong signal for organized banding that would support a swath of 2" or more and this, but the chances of this happening are likely to be reduced because of the variation in the track of these potential bands.

At this time, there isn't a high possibility of 3" or more of rain or snow during the next 48 hours, but in areas with better-structured convection, this will be feasible.

For this evening through Monday evening, a flood watch has been issued for locations where saturation or continuing overland floods are in danger for either new or worsened situations if these higher totals are reached.

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