Lubbock, TX

Slow-moving Thunderstorm Forecast for Northern Texas

Bryan Dijkhuizen

As West Coast troughing starts to impact the area, our run of temperatures considerably above average will be followed by temperatures slightly above normal this week.

During the day on Tuesday, surface moisture will be able to rise back into the predicted region as a result of this troughing. As a result of the greater moisture and lower thicknesses, temperatures will remain somewhat cooler, with most locations reaching highs in the mid-90s.

During the day, a light shortwave will travel northeast out of northwest Mexico, providing lift that, when paired with significant daytime warmth, could aid in the eroding of a cap that will be in place over the region, resulting in the formation of thunderstorms in some areas.

Since of high lapse rates across much of the atmosphere, CAPE values will surge beyond 2500 J/Kg, despite the fact that deep-layer shear will be minimal because the strongest winds will stay far west of the predicted region.

As a consequence of the somewhat slow-moving thunderstorm motion, heavy rainfall, huge hail, and destructive winds will all be probable, as well as some severe thunderstorm activity. As storms continue to rage along with the cold pool, this activity should begin to migrate eastward in the nighttime hours.

Through Friday, the dryline will slosh back and forth in our area, with the primary upper-level trough lingering throughout the Western United States. This arrangement will remain stable throughout the week.

Temperatures will remain generally stable from day to day, with the possibility of thunderstorms developing each afternoon near the dryline each day. It will begin to swing over the forecast region on Friday afternoon, and the dryline will continue to travel farther east and out of our area by Saturday, thereby putting an end to the possibilities of precipitation in our area.

A cold front will pass across the region late Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, bringing temperatures down a few degrees for Sunday.

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