Shra/tstm lines stretching over northern areas of the CWA will droop southward later this evening.
Despite the fact that the best synoptic dynamics are generally located across northern parts of the region, and that waning daytime heating would generally favor a gradual weakening trend in terms of storm intensity in the coming hours.
We still believe that some localized strongly to severe cells will pulse up and down within the segment into the Houston metro area and possibly into the nearshore Gulf waters late this evening into the night.
In the previous 24 hours, many HRRR runs showed that the situation has changed for the better during the past 24 hours or so. Strong winds and hail would be the most serious problems.
Expect some fog in the northern portions of the region tonight, especially as the winds lessen and clouds begin to disperse. The wet ground should be expected in the northern sections of the area.
Early Friday morning, an iso shra lingering offshore was followed by clearing skies over the country. Ridging will continue to accumulate, and temperatures will begin to rise...more so in the lengthy forecast than on Friday.
Over the Plains and Texas, an upper-level ridge is forming and strengthening, with an sfc high forming over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This trend will continue to deliver warm and south to southwest flow aloft, as well as southerly flow near the surface frontal boundary.
In fact, temperatures at 850 mb are higher than the 99th percentile of the NAEFS climatology during the majority of the medium-range period. This suggests that high temperatures will be mostly in the mid-90s across the region. Additionally, a windy Sunday is likely as the pressure gradient narrows ahead of lee cyclogenesis across the Central Rockies/Plains on Sunday.
After that, breezy southerly winds will bring in a moist Gulf airmass, with dewpoints expected to be in the low to mid-70s in the afternoon.
As a result, this weekend will bring some of the highest temperatures of the year so far, with a humid and muggy atmosphere for those who want to spend time outside. Heat index readings in the triple digits will be produced by a combination of high temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s.
Heat-related headlines will very certainly be required. The hot and humid weather will persist until next week, although it will be rather dry.