The surface low-pressure system now above the North/South Dakota border has become occluded, and the accompanying cold front is plodding southeastward over far eastern Kansas and western Missouri to the east.
Radar and infrared satellite photos indicate scattered sub-severe showers and thunderstorms across our western CWA and into northern Oklahoma, according to the National Weather Service. Storm development is expected tonight, according to current CAM advice, as a mild mid-level shortwave and high shear supply energy for these systems.
Because of the decreasing low-level jet with MUCAPE values ranging between 500 and 600 J/kg, most, if not all, storms will stay sub-severe throughout the night. In support of this notion, the 00Z sounding for tonight shows little instability and a strong capping inversion.
Rainfall quantities are expected to be highest over southwest Missouri and Oklahoma tonight, with values ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches in some areas.
Large-scale convection should subside a little during the early morning hours of today morning, with scattered showers developing over the region by early afternoon.
Enhanced instability and lift from the right entry area of the upper-level jet streak could aid in the re-ignition of storms from the southwest to the northeast by late afternoon, with storms moving from the southwest to the northeast.
Although the threat of severe weather is minimal, quarter-sized hail and wind gusts of up to 60 mph are likely in certain areas. The most serious concern posed by this set of storms will be the possibility of severe rainfall and flash floods.
According to forecasts, the cold front will stall across south-central Missouri when the flow aloft turns parallel to the frontal boundary. Storms will be able to train over regions primarily along and south of the I-44 corridor from the middle of the day on Sunday into the early morning on Monday. A Flood Watch has been issued for the affected districts.
According to the most recent WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, the Moderate risk has been extended into far southern Missouri, with peak rainfall rates of 1.0 - 1.5 inches/hour predicted.
According to current NBM projections, there is a 40 - 50% chance of receiving more than 2 inches of rain for most of the region under flood watch; however, totals of up to 4 inches are possible in the strongest storms.
It is expected that the front will move out of our region by late Monday morning, with any lingering showers dissipating by the afternoon.