Florida, NY

Severe Weather and Thunderstorms are Expected for Northwestern Florida

Bryan Dijkhuizen

Today's weather is forecast to be active, with a wave of showers and thunderstorms beginning on our western doorstep this morning and heading eastward.

According to recent HRRR simulations conducted overnight, a favorable environment for a moderate risk of severe weather exists with MUCAPE ranging from 800 to 1000 j/kg, deep layer shear of 40-50 knots, and low level shear of 20-30 knots, among other characteristics.

The hodographs are slightly curved, suggesting that there is a non-zero tornado potential at this location.

Aside from that, steep mid-level lapse rates of 7C/km will allow for considerable increased instability, with some hail possibly occurring in the heavier storms. It is also possible to have a few destructive wind gusts of up to 60 mph.

An upper level disturbance buried in southwest flow aloft is forcing this line, which is assisting in advecting those steep mid-level lapse rates into our region from the Mexican Plateau. A sluggish moving cold front near the surface is also contributing to the movement of these storms.

This afternoon, thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the area, with severe weather potential being present all the way throughout the region.

The region is anticipated to see the re-development of another round of showers and thunderstorms when fresh upper-level disturbances pass through as we approach into the evening, though the air mass may have steadied somewhat since the last round.

As a result, the severe potential associated with tonight's activities is less definite. A significant amount of rain is also forecast to fall, with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected by tonight throughout swaths of the region. Higher levels are also feasible in some locations.

In comparison to locations further west, the eastern sections of the area will see the highest temperatures today, since they will have more time to experience midday heating before the convection comes.

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