A rising shortwave trough over the Central Plains and a related area of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley this evening may lead to the possibility of severe weather, flash floods, and snowfall on the colder side of the system on the cold side of the system.
Cold Front Expected on the Central United States
An associated cold front stretching to the east and into the northern Mid-Atlantic is forecast to be the focal point for a widespread shower and thunderstorm outbreak from southern Missouri to most of the Ohio Valley tonight as it stalls and slowly rises northward, bringing rain and thunder.
Heavy rain connected with the slow-moving thunderstorms may result in rainfall totals of up to 3 inches in some areas. This quantity of precipitation in such a short period of time has the potential to cause dispersed flash floods.
The World Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of heavy rainfall for this area in order to draw attention to the possible flash flooding hazard.
Extreme Rainfall in Ohio Valley
The danger of extreme rainfall will linger over the Ohio Valley into Monday as a powerful cold front moves eastward into the Appalachians and the Gulf Coast, bringing with it the potential for more rounds of thunderstorms in the region.
Flood Watches are also in place from southern Missouri to central Kentucky at the present time, as well. As thunderstorms form and proceed through the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys tonight, the possibility of severe wind gusts, huge hail, and isolated tornadoes persists as well.
Snowfall in the North
Further north, colder air has flowed into the Central Plains, the Midwest, and the Great Lakes, resulting in significant snowfall between northeast Kansas tonight and central Michigan by Monday, according to forecasts.
However, despite the fact that the system will move quickly, a burst of moderate to locally heavy snow may result in reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.
Overall, snowfall quantities are projected to be less than 6 inches, with the biggest accumulations occurring in southern Wisconsin and central Michigan, according to forecasters. Low pressure and wintry precipitation are expected to move into far northern New England by late Monday night and Tuesday.
Winds that are chilly and windy behind the cold front might bring sporadic lake effect snow showers on Tuesday morning, forecasters say.