A pair of shortwaves rotating through an upper-level trough will be the primary driving factor behind the majority of the weather dangers this weekend. As a low-pressure system travels from the Central Plains and into the Upper Midwest, it will strengthen in intensity today.
Snowfall in the Midwest
Over sections of the Central Great Basin, Intermountain West, and Central Rockies today, moderate to heavy snow will fall on the backside of the storm system.
During the course of the surface low's journey north and eastward, a swath of light to moderate snow will extend from the Front Range to the Upper Midwest.
Storms and Rain in the Northeast
Throughout southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula, freezing rain will be the primary concern within the transition zone between snow and rain. Ice accumulations may exceed a quarter of an inch by Sunday morning in some areas of southern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula.
As a consequence, ice storm warnings have been issued for parts of northern Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula.
Within the warm sector of this dynamic system, severe weather, fire weather, and the potential for record-breaking temperatures will all be a source of worry. Through Sunday, a well-defined warm front will move northward over the Midwest and Northeast, bringing rain and snow with it.
This will enable for anomalously warm and wet air to follow and spread throughout the eastern half of the nation as a result of the storm system. The result will be a slew of temperature records being matched or broken over most of the Eastern United States through Monday.
During this time period, high temperatures are expected to be between 20 and 30 degrees Celsius above normal. A strong cold front moving south across the central United States will combine with this warm and moist air mass, increasing the risk of severe thunderstorms and copious rainfall throughout areas of the Mississippi Valley and Midwest during the next couple of days.
A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for most of Iowa, northern Missouri, northwestern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin for the remainder of today.
Large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe wind gusts will be the primary concerns for residents in these locations on Tuesday. As the cold front moves farther south on Sunday, the area of concentration for severe storms will expand.
Thunderstorms for the Midwest
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rain in effect for most of Arkansas, southern Missouri/Illinois and Indiana, and western Kansas and Tennessee, where the possibility of heavy rainfall and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns.
A dry line is expected to emerge throughout the Southern Plains today and last until at least Monday morning, according to the National Weather Service.
In conjunction with warm air and gusty winds brought on by a deep area of low pressure to the north, these arid conditions are expected to contribute to the formation of a Critical Fire Weather region in sections of the Texas panhandle and central Oklahoma/Kansas.
By Sunday, the danger of Critical Fire Weather will have dissipated and will be confined to eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Over the next several days, high pressure will spread throughout the West, causing temperatures to drop by 20-30 degrees Fahrenheit.
This will be particularly true for sections of the Front Range, where maximum temperatures will be 20-30 degrees below average.