Increasing Temperatures and Dry Weather are Forecast for Arizona; Gusty Northeastern Winds Expected for the Weekend

Bryan Dijkhuizen

Until Thursday, dry weather and increasing temperatures are forecast in the area. On Friday and Saturday, gusty northeast winds will develop, bringing colder temperatures on Saturday.

The dry and moderate weather will persist through Sunday and into the first few days of next week.

The mountains are rising today as a ridge starts to form in the southwest, bringing with it the prospect of sustained high temperatures and dry conditions.

On Thursday, the heights reach their highest point of the week, resulting in the hottest temperatures of the week happening at that time.

Cloud cover in the top levels of the atmosphere starts to develop late Thursday as moisture begins to increase somewhat out from an upper-level low-pressure system off the coast of southern California.

However, a shortwave enters from the north early Friday, and moisture advection is rapidly cut off by the resumption of stronger northwesterly flow in the afternoon. Because of this, it is not predicted that this system would produce precipitation.

As the shortwave passes, breezy conditions are forecast Friday night into Saturday morning. Given that the heaviest low-level winds are predicted to occur overnight Friday, a lack of mixing will maintain the stronger 35-45 kt gusts just above the inversion layer and just off the surface of the atmosphere.

The outcome is that the strongest winds will be localized to the high terrain and will not affect much of the lower elevations and valley places.

Cooler temperatures and lighter winds will persist in the aftermath of the shortwave into the afternoon of Saturday and Sunday.

On Monday, the upper-level low-pressure system off the coast continues to move eastward.

Because of the moisture being ejected into the coast with the south/southwesterly flow, there is a modest risk of precipitation on Monday and Tuesday, mostly over high terrain, as the storm moves inland.

In contrast, just a few members of the GEFS and EPS ensembles indicate modest precipitation, with the majority of the members staying dry throughout the prediction period.

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