Storm Forecast for New Mexico; Warmer Temperatures and Minimal Breezes

Bryan Dijkhuizen

Despite the fact that a weak upper-level low will continue to track eastward across southern New Mexico this morning, it will be out of the state by lunchtime.

Higher Temperatures Until Wednesday

Any lower clouds linked with the low-pressure system should also dissipate. The Central Mountain Chain and the East Central Plains may get southwest to northwest winds this afternoon, with the possibility of thunderstorms.

Today's high temperatures will be a few degrees higher in the east and a few degrees colder in the northwest.

Although a very weak upper trough will pass above and afternoon winds will become northeasterly across sections of the northeast and east-central New Mexico, Wednesday will be a bit warmer than usual, with temperatures somewhat above average once again.

Storm Forecast for Friday

Throughout Wednesday night and Thursday, an upper-level ridge will continue to develop across the Desert Southwestern United States. This will enable high temperatures to rise a few degrees further on Thursday afternoon and evening.

The temperature will be 5 to 15 degrees above average in most places, which will feel fantastic under plenty of sunshine and minimal breeze.

In recent days, models have come to a consensus on the fact that a shortwave trough would slide from the Pacific Northwest to the southeast and over New Mexico on Friday.

Because this storm does not seem to be bringing much precipitation with it, the accompanying cold front will likely be the most interesting part of the narrative.

With gusty to windy weather developing Friday throughout the eastern plains, the backdoor part of the front seems to be the stronger segment of the front. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 miles per hour will be likely in northeast New Mexico.

The little precipitation connected with the system, along with the modest upslope flow to the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, might result in a few flurries over the mountains in the next hours and days.

Following that, a low confidence prediction is maintained since it is unclear if and when the upper-level low near the Baja would eject or whether it will just be absorbed by the flow of the ocean.

In general, the operational models have continued to favor drier conditions, however, some are now predicting QPF throughout the southwest United States late Friday into Saturday as some subtropical moisture interacts with the aforementioned cold front.

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