Heavy Rainfall Forecast for Georgia

Bryan Dijkhuizen

According to the latest forecast, upper ridging is still focused over the Caribbean and running approximately parallel to and along the Atlantic coast, while troughing continues to be present over the western Continental United States.

The persistence of this arrangement has allowed the southwesterly upper-level flow to remain across most of the eastern United States. At the surface, a stationary front stays stalled to our north and extends over the Tennessee Valley for the time being.

A strong surface high to the east of the Florida peninsula is also keeping southerly to southwesterly winds blowing across Georgia at a moderate pace.

As a consequence of these variables, the air mass above the north and central Georgia continues to be unusually warm and wet as the period starts.

Across far northern Georgia, low temperatures this morning are forecast to range from the low 60s to the upper 60s, with temperatures in east-central Georgia reaching the high 60s.

These temperatures will be between 28 and 32 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year.

Using the phrase unseasonably warm maybe a bit of an understatement, as these lows might once again be near or above records over the predicted region.

Weather systems are bringing showers and thunderstorms to parts of north Georgia, mostly along and north of a line running approximately from Heard county to Wilkes county.

Because the upper-level shortwave crossing the upper-level flow and moving across the Tennessee Valley has been moving northeastward away from the forecast region, the line of showers and thunderstorms has been stuck throughout this part of the country.

However, even though minor instability persists throughout most of north Georgia, 0-1 km shear values remain between 25 and 30 kts, while deep layer bulk shear values remain in the range of 50-60 kts.

However, even while marginal instability and a lack of coordinated forcing are acting as limiting factors, it is still conceivable that isolated stronger storms emerge this morning and generate severe winds with the potential to cause significant damage.

The presence of deep moisture in the atmosphere, as well as precipitable values over 1.5 inches throughout north Georgia, raises the possibility of heavier storms bringing substantial rainfall.

Localized flooding problems are thus conceivable today morning, particularly in areas where training bands of storms can form.

As a result of the decrease of diurnal instability, the chances of rain will gradually decline this evening and overnight.

Because of light winds overnight and saturated soils in areas that have received precipitation, it is expected that fog will develop over northern and central Georgia today and tomorrow.

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