Conditions are expected to be mostly calm over the region, with brief bouts of rain emerging today and continuing through the holiday weekend.
It is expected that temperatures in the area will be substantially below average.
The incoming storm seems to focus a bit more clearly today, with forecasts becoming more consistent in terms of timing and rainfall levels.
Some showers are beginning to appear on the radar around 60 miles west of San Luis Obispo, heading towards the northeast.
These primary precipitation bands will usher in a pretty extended rainy spell that will last at least through Saturday. The development of showers along the Central Coast is expected by late afternoon.
Still, the movement of these showers to the south will likely take well into the evening hours since the upper low is still at least 1000 miles to the west and on a southerly trajectory when we look at the forecast.
The rain will be mild at first, and then it will get heavier.
Despite this, rain rates are predicted to increase Thursday night and into Friday as the upper low-pressure system approaches the coast.
While some spells of heavy rain are likely throughout this time, it does not seem that rates will surpass debris flow limits since southerly flow is only about half of what we observed during the last storm. The weather is not looking very convective at this point in the forecast.
Given that the prior incident resulted in only very mild and generally relatively normal reactions in and around the burn scars, it is unlikely that the current event will result in anything worse than that.
As a result, we do not anticipate the need for any flash flood warnings in connection with this occurrence.
The rainfall projection shown below is fair; however, we will wait until later this morning to see how the 12z ensemble runs turn out.
Snow levels will be pretty high through Friday, exceeding those of most ski resorts, and then begin to decline Friday night and into Saturday as precipitation begins to taper down.