The upper low-pressure system stays to our south and will move eastward over the day. There is some uncertainty about how far north the showers may move; for the time being, they have stayed south of the state's middle.
However, the term sprinkles/drizzle has been included since sufficient cloud cover and weak lift north of the low may allow for some very light rain, mainly along and south of I-40 this morning and across the eastern United States this afternoon.
As the upper low passes eastward, the northwest flow enters the atmosphere behind it, bringing dry weather to the mid-state until early Friday.
Because the upper low has moved farther north than predicted by the models, a weak cold front will travel over the region today, keeping temperatures chilly into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures in the mid to high 50s will be experienced on Thursday, thanks to a resumption of the southerly flow.
A warm front moving in from the Midwest will bring warmer temperatures to the region on Friday, ahead of a trough that might bring light rain to the area as early as Friday afternoon, but more likely Friday night into early Saturday.
Long-range forecast models are still having difficulty predicting the weather for the rest of the holiday weekend.
A more unsettling trend is expected to take hold in the next week, with the possibility of rain beginning the week. Models continue to dispute on timing, but they all agree that we are into a more active pattern, so we should see small chance/chance pops from Monday through Wednesday for the time being.
Because of the warmer temperatures expected to persist through Monday and Tuesday, there is no concern about wintry precipitation at this time. There is also no indication of any strong to severe storms at this time, so we will keep an eye on things next week to see if anything changes.