High pressure aloft will keep a dry weather pattern in place through Tuesday, but a wet weather pattern will emerge over the northern section of the area Tuesday night as a storm system moves into the region, bringing rain and flooding.
Rain and high elevation snow, as well as spells of gusty winds, will extend southward through Thursday afternoon and into the evening. A showery and unstable weather trend is predicted to continue through the end of this week.
As the thick fog began to lift in the San Luis Obispo County lowlands this morning, a slug of high clouds began to approach the whole area, signaling the beginning of a new day.
The increasing cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side for the afternoon highs today, which will make for a pleasant change from yesterday's temperatures.
There are no significant weather impacts expected in the next 24-hours, except some localized northeast winds in the mountains and canyons of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties and possibly gusty southeast winds over the Santa Barbara County Mountains late tonight through Tuesday morning, respectively.
Because of the mid-and high-level cloud cover, there is little chance of low clouds developing in coastal regions tonight.
Early analysis of the most recent model data does not improve the forecast confidence column for our next rainy storm system, as seen below.
Currently, a vast swath of subtropical moisture is flowing into southern California from the south of Hawaii, in a region where models cannot adequately simulate the situation due to a scarcity of observational data.
Furthermore, the southerly wind component has departed according to the most recent forecasts. A stronger westerly wind will replace it on Thursday, which will result in fewer upslope increased rainfall levels.
Precipitation is expected to begin on Wednesday and increase intensity during the night on Wednesday in northern counties and across the rest of the state on Thursday.
This initial system is expected to provide a slight decrease in rainfall totals, which is to be expected.