Despite cold fronts passing across the area Monday and Tuesday night, the good weather in the near term will be characterized by dry conditions and temperatures above average.
The area is now caught between westerly winds to the north and a shortwave trough to the south, resulting in a mostly southwesterly flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. 850Mb and southerly surface flow continue to dominate as a high-pressure system moves eastward out of the region and away from the coast.
Warmer temperatures today due to WAA, along with the lower airflow and insolation under a clear sky, will drive temperatures 5-10 degrees higher than yesterday, into the mid-40s to just below 50 degrees.
A cold front will sweep across the area Monday afternoon and into the nighttime hours, with its passage highlighted only by a change in the wind direction and chilly overnight lows due to a lack of moisture throughout the atmosphere throughout the region.
Despite a northwesterly flow behind the front, the flow will shift to the southwesterly direction by Tuesday morning as a low-level trough and surface front approach from the west. Temperatures will rise above average once again due to WAA and insolation, comparable to Monday's highs.
By Tuesday afternoon, the Great Lakes area will get visited by a mid-level and low-level trough. Meanwhile, another dry cold front will reach the surface level region on Wednesday.
After passing across the area overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday, the dry cold front will depart, bringing northwesterly flow in its aftermath.
By Tuesday night, the mid-level short wave will have moved into the northern Mid-Atlantic and will have joined with a trough over the southeast to form an amplified trough over the eastern United States.
When this occurs in conjunction with ridging over the western United States, the mid-Mississippi Valley will have heavy northwest flow on Wednesday.
Small CAA will flood into the area tonight and throughout the early part of the day on Wednesday as a result of northwesterly flow echoing in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
With insolation and a clear sky, this CAA will be sufficient to keep temperatures 5-8 degrees cooler than they were the previous days.