Temperatures are forecast to be in the seasonal range today, with temperatures likely to rise during the remainder of the week and into the weekend.
It will be 5 to 20 degrees warmer than typical during the daytime high temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.
Weather conditions are forecast to be breezy in east-central New Mexico today, then again Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming more severe across the whole state on Thursday and Friday.
Friday is expected to be the windiest day of the week, which might cause problems with outside Christmas decorations.
From Thursday through the weekend, rain and high-altitude snow will return to northern and western New Mexico, although any significant snow will be limited to the highest mountains.
Over the Desert Southwest, an upper-level ridge will continue to form through Monday night and Tuesday morning.
After the ridge flattens on Wednesday, the west-southwest flow will intensify aloft on Thursday ahead of the next trough, which is scheduled to arrive on Friday.
Temperatures are forecast to be pretty warm from Tuesday through Thursday, ranging anywhere from 5 to 20 degrees above average. Because of the downsloping nature of the winds, the most extreme deviations from normal are forecast throughout eastern New Mexico.
Even though models continue to treat the impending trough in various ways, all agree that Pacific moisture will reach the persistent westerly flow by late Thursday.
Top-down moistening should start fast, and orographic lift should allow for the development of lower elevation rain and high elevation snow throughout northern and western New Mexico Thursday night, and into Friday morning, forecasters say.
During this period, wind speeds aloft will also increase, with 700 Mb flow ranging between 50 and 70kts.
Windy conditions are expected on Christmas Eve due to intense mixing and a developing lee side surface low. Strong winds are possible once again in the early morning hours or just before dawn, and they may continue throughout the day, particularly across eastern New Mexico.
Even though it is too early to predict specific wind speeds, it seems like another round of blowing snow will be possible for the high terrain, blowing dust throughout the country's eastern half.
On Saturday, the orographic lift may allow showers to persist throughout northern New Mexico. Conditions will be breezy to windy in eastern New Mexico as well.