Mild Rain Showers Expected on the East Coast, High Temperatures in Florida

Bryan Dijkhuizen

We are seeing rather mild East/South-East flow across South Florida this afternoon.

As is usual in this easterly environment, we have a significant quantity of low-level moisture trapped behind a low-level inversion, but the air above the inversion (located approximately 800mb) remains rather dry.

When paired with a weak low-level disturbance, this moisture is adequate to produce isolated showers across areas of the east coast and northern Atlantic seas today.

However, given the wave's overall direction, it is likely that any precipitation will be restricted to the coastal areas of Palm Beach and Broward counties and neighboring waterways throughout the day as it pivots around the high-pressure system.

The remainder of the day will be warm (highs in the mid 80s) and partly to mostly overcast (with the most cloud cover along the east coast), with the highest cloud cover over the mountains.

Winds will die down overnight, and diurnal cumulus should clear off, so the primary worry will be fog possibility over the interior.

The highest resolution guidance concentrates the fog potential largely north and west of a KAPF-KPBI line, which is in keeping with both climatology and crossover temperature considerations.

Fog potential may be hampered further south and east by growing low-level cloud cover ahead of the next low-level easterly wave that is expected to arrive in the region.

For the time being, the North-West half of the area will be mostly patchy fog, but there will be the potential for locally dense fog (particularly east of Lake O), as well as some potential for fog expanding a bit further South-East, particularly if the anticipated 4-5k ft cloud deck is delayed or becomes more scattered in nature.

On Monday, another low-level disturbance will approach from the southeast, bringing a fresh risk of showers to the area (with a concentrate once again on the east coast, but some precip potential persists throughout the whole region).

As a result, given the anticipated CAPE/EL height values, we have a modest probability of thunderstorms in the eastern United States on Monday afternoon.

However, mid-level dry air should restrict if not completely prohibit any deeper convection from occurring.

Otherwise, expect a significant amount of cloud cover connected with the disturbance, which will maintain peak temperatures comparable to today's (low 80s) despite a significantly warmer airmass in the forecast for tomorrow.

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