Mid-level clouds generally scattered to overcast persist throughout much of Southern New England this afternoon, with lower cloud cover near the Berkshire Mountains.
West/North-West flow dominates conditions in Southern New England, trapped between two weak frontal systems: one near the mid-Atlantic coast, which leads to a shield of clouds over our far southern offshore seas, and another, more noticeable but still weak, frontal system over western Quebec.
This latter feature, coming in from western Quebec and the Great Lakes, will continue to contribute to regions of mid-level clouds until early this evening, even though the moisture layer between 900 and 700 Mb is relatively thin.
The result should be dry conditions with a wind change from South-West to West/West-North-West and an accompanying short period of gusts between 25-30 mph between mid-evening and midnight, driven by the beginning of moderate cold advection in conjunction with increasing sea-level pressure trends throughout the passage of this front.
As pressure increases become less apparent overnight, cooling PBL will be countered by steadily declining temperatures, resulting in model soundings for the after-midnight period becoming inverted and a propensity for gusts to decrease for the majority of the population.
The exception is along the coasts/shorelines and over water, where milder air temperatures/water temperatures may allow West-North-West gusts of up to 25 mph to persist into the nighttime.
The presence of at least some steady West-North-West winds tonight maintained evening lows on the milder side of forecast guidance, mainly in the upper 20s for most of the interior, lower 30s for the southern and eastern coasts, and mid to upper 30s for much of Cape Cod and the Islands.
High pressure will return on after a weak frontal system moves through the Great Lakes and into the ocean tonight.
The weather will be primarily dry, and seasonably cool is likely to prevail for the rest of the weekend.
On Monday, temperatures will soar well into the 60s, which is very warm for this time of year.
Forecasters are concerned about severe to destructive wind gusts of 40-60 mph, as well as a chance of rain showers. Air that is dry and significantly colder is expected to arrive in the area late Monday night and early Tuesday.
On Wednesday, accumulations of snow are expected in some regions. However, the rain/snow border location and the axis of the heaviest precipitation are still up in the air.
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