Cloud cover begins to build Tuesday afternoon again due to the arrival of another fast-moving cyclone.
As the wave swings in from the west to the east, the temperature profiles in the models continue to be chilly, increasing the likelihood of snow showers Tuesday afternoon. QPF, on the other hand, is restricted by the low moisture content of the surrounding atmosphere.
This means that the snow accumulations for this wave of precipitation will be minimal, with another dusting to less than half an inch expected throughout northern New York Tuesday afternoon.
The period of dry weather between systems is, once again, relatively modest in duration.
With anomalous ridging over the southern part of the CONUS and anomalous trough far north of our area, the jet stream will accelerate, directed between these two abnormal features.
A robust northern stream system will be at the leading edge of the jet stream when it enters the area on Thursday afternoon and evening.
Even though there are still significant variances in time and place, ensembles are gradually becoming more closely grouped in their composition.
During this period, the system is forecast to stay north of the International Border, likely restricting the amount of snow that may be expected. Precipitation will change to a cold rain after daylight on Thursday, except for higher terrain.
The possibility of a 35 to 45 kt LLJ at 850 hPa on Thursday afternoon remains a question mark. We may anticipate a few gusts of wind, but the thermal profiles at this point look to be too low to allow for adequate mixing.
On Thursday, temperatures will rise into the 40s for most regions, with colder weather returning when the system moves through on Friday.
During the day on Friday, a few snow showers are still a distinct possibility.
A sheared system will approach us on Saturday and Sunday, with the option of staying to our south. After that, our fast upper jet will migrate eastward.
This will result in a more wavy overall flow across the United States, which should allow for the formation of a dynamic system early next week, as predicted.
As of 9:13 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Monday.
Going forward, the forecast is in excellent condition, and no significant changes are anticipated at this moment.
The only adjustments required were the temperature and dew point to make them more in line with actual circumstances.
A cloudy sky with a few clouds but predominantly bright skies will continue to provide cool temperatures today. Cloud cover increases Tuesday afternoon again, with a greater possibility of snow showers continuing through the middle of the week.
Whether that is unsettled but mostly unaffected will continue until the end of the week, with a succession of fast-moving waves sweeping over the area as a result.
There are some indicators that a warmer system may be affecting the region late next week or early next weekend.
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