Kansas City, KS

Severe Weather Possible in the KC Region - then it cools down

Brian E Erwin

It will be warm and windy through the day today (Monday.) It is possible we could see a brief show or storm mainly north of I-70 early.

Starting tonight, we will see an active period of weather, and it will last through late on Tuesday.

Everything is coming together for severe weather perhaps tonight and most likely tomorrow across the KC region. A strong area of Low Pressure will lift north. There is also a cold front/dry line and that will serve as additional focusing mechanisms for rounds of thunderstorms across central and eastern Nebraska. The Cold Front is expected to approach northwestern Missouri early in the evening, but then potentially stall.

There are still lots of questions as to what might happen when. What happens tonight will play a role in what happens tomorrow. The bigger risk for severe weather across the area is for tomorrow. The greatest risk at this point appears to be between noon and 7 p.m. The Storms Prediction Center has nearly the entire KC region under an Enhanced Risk for severe weather.

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Enhanced Risk - 3 out of 5Weather Bell

As the main cold front moves through the area, the atmosphere should destabilize. All of the main ingredients will come together to have a more widespread event.

It is going to be plenty humid around here. Dew points are forecast to be around 70.

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Dew PointWeather Bell

Surface Temps should be near 80.

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Forecast Temps at 1pm TuesdayPivotal Weather

There will be very strong shear. Helicity values will also be rather high for supercell development.

Helicity is a mathematical quantity based on three factors which are 1) speed shear, 2) directional shear, and 3) inflow. Two of these components (speed and directional shear) are directly related in producing horizontal vorticity which was explained in mini-lecture 46. Another factor in producing Helicity is inflow. Inflow (storm-relative inflow) is the wind flow that is available to be ingested by a storm. Inflow, as it relates to Helicity, is the low-level wind field that is orientated directly into the tube of horizontal vorticity. The higher the low level wind then the higher the inflow. In thinking of a storm as an engine, inflow is the oxygen that supplies mass, momentum and moisture to a storm engine." (https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints2/633/)

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HelicityWeather Bell

This value is on the low side of high - meaning - if it goes up even a little, supercells storms could develop. This is just one of the many complex variables that are looked at when it comes to the development of thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes.

With the shear comes a stronger CAPE.

CAPE stands for Convective Available Potential Energy. This value is used to indicate how strong updrafts will be if convective storms develop." http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/905/

The Cape values are falling into the large to Extreme category, so this is concerning.

There will be a weak "Cap" or Lid. This is also known as Convective Inhibition or CIN.

Convective Inhibition (CIN) is the energy that needs to be overcome in order for convection to occur. Another term for this is a cap or lid. A lifting mechanism will need to overcome this inhibition in order for surface based storms to occur. This inhibition can be weakened by daytime heating, frontal lifting, low level convergence, storm generated outflow, upper level divergence and other lifting mechanisms. Once the inhibition is overcome, then CAPE will take over and help control the updraft intensity." http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints3/905/

It appears as if the cap will break. If this happens, we can expect severe thunderstorms that could produce tornadoes some of which could be of the EF2 or above strength.

The showers and storms will linger behind the front into Wednesday and Thursday. as a long-standing trough to the west breaks down. Also behind the front expect cooler conditions through Saturday.

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Forecast TempsWeather Bell

As you can see - it is going o be a cool week in the KC region.

This is one forecast for rain throughout the week.

Here is another graphic:

Here is the outlook for June and July - this will likely be updated later this week.

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Outlook for June and JulyClimate Prediction Center

Watch for more great articles!

Thank you for reading and sharing!

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I have experience in all kinds of writing from creative to professional. I especially like to write about weather - and share weather history.

Gardner, KS
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