Expert says Californians who moved to Texas cost Beto the 2018 election

Ash Jurberg

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Beto O'RourkeImage from WikiCommons images

There are a lot of Californians that have moved to Texas in recent years.

From the period 2010 to 2019 - the last year that Census data is available- 885,000 people moved to Texas. And 34% of them, about 303,000, were from California. 

Primarily they are coming for cheaper housing and more job opportunities. For example, the median home price in Texas is $362,000 compared to $800,000 in California.

Many Texans believe that as California is a Democrat state, Californians moving here would vote Democrat and potentially turn Texas blue.

However, Chuck Devore, the Texas Public Policy Foundation vice president, believes that Californians may have actually led to Ted Cruz defeating Beto O'Rourke in 2018.

There was a very fascinating CNN exit poll… between Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Ted Cruz for the 2018 election. And what that poll found was that native Texans, about 60% of voters preferred O’Rourke by plus three. Now, Cruz won that race by a little more than two points. But the 40% of Texans who moved here, like, by the way, did Ted Cruz because he wasn’t born here, right? They preferred Cruz by plus 15. So if it wasn’t for the transplants who moved to Texas, that poll suggested that O’Rourke would be a senator.

So while many people believe Californians will vote blue if the same voting pattern occurs this year as it did in 2022, they will vote for Greg Abbott, and Beto will lose another election in Texas.

Your thoughts

Do you believe the huge influx of Californians will turn Texas blue? Or do you believe they will have no impact and Beto will lose another election?

Please leave a comment with your opinion below and share this article with others so they can join the conversation.

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