According to the Climate Prediction Center, the ENSO pattern is going from neutral to El Nino “with a greater than 90% chance of El Niño persisting into the Northern Hemisphere winter.” This will set up conditions over the next three months to be higher temperatures than normal according to the CPC for Arizona. See the above image for that prediction. The Arizona Weatherman concurs with this forecast of higher temperatures through the summertime especially as this stronger El Nino sets up this summer. This is statistically the likelihood for Arizona temperatures this summer.
For the upcoming week 23 to 28 May 2023, expect hotter temperatures and dry weather for southern Arizona. There is a long wave ridging over the state producing these conditions. Arizona Weatherman is expecting upper 80s for elevations over 4,000 feet and mid to upper 90s over Phoenix, Tucson, and Yuma areas for the high temperatures. This will go into the weekend. Furthermore, no precipitation for much of the state. The dry springtime regime is back in place for the area and more in line with drier conditions before the monsoon kicks off. This is also a normal seasonal situation before the rainfall commences in the state.
Additionally, the clouds will be a lot less coverage over southern Arizona for the week. This will enhance the higher temperatures but also increase the UV rays coming from the sun. The UV Index will be very high at a 10 and Extremely High at an 11 throughout the week. So, if you are going outside for extended periods of time, please use sunscreen or protective clothing to keep you from getting sunburned. Additionally, these higher temperatures and drier conditions increase the Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) levels especially around larger metro areas of Phoenix and Tucson throughout the week as well. This can lead to difficulty breathing, especially for those with asthma or other breathing conditions. Stay safe out there!