Perspectives on food production in 2050

ANIP consultant

Despite natural resource constraints, per capita food availability is predicted to rise. The demand side's increase in per capita GDP and the supply side's increase in yield will be the main driving forces behind this development. Is this a result of the fact that the thresholds on

Is it owing to a lack of natural resources that agricultural production will be limited in 2050, or is it due to a lack of resources?

Is there a lack of understanding of the impact of natural resources on food security?

This section examines existing future food security scenarios, which are mostly 'business-as-usual' expert estimates of current and predicted socio-economic and technological trends. It investigates how they exploit natural resources.

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Taking into account and analyzing the possible repercussions of various assumptions onthe impact of the underlying ecological, economic, and social resources on the scenarios' outcomes. Given the ever-increasing demands on natural resources and the ever-increasing hazards to the environment.

This section discusses food availability, which has been identified in a variety of methods in a variety of settings, analyzes the fundamental ideas of a "green scenario," with a focus on making things more efficient and environmentally friendly for food production, land, water, and agricultural inputs must be used in a resilient manner.

Because resource dynamics, such as land and water availability, fertilizer costs, disease transmission, and the impact of trade policy on resources and bargaining power, are not fully understood, scenario assumptions do not include explicit dynamics of future natural resource usage, As a result, it's critical to provide specific considerations of these issues In order to foresee how they would affect food availability. A couple of scenarios have taken the first step in this direction

Based on policy and technical assumptions, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has established three more or less hopeful scenarios that address food security in relation to climate change, as well as water availability, sanitation and the price of oil.
Before delving into the details of the scenarios, it's worth emphasizing that they're more concerned with average food supply than with its continuity or resilience. This implies they ignore interannual or interdecadal variability caused by extreme weather or socioeconomic occurrences The state-of-the-art emphasizes the inclusion of such diversity.

Even though large-scale food crises in the last two centuries have resulted precisely from unanticipated circumstances, such scenarios are not currently available in our models droughts, plant diseases, and wars, rather than a general trend in food availability per individual.

This suggests that, when analyzing food availability under these situations, investigations of sources of ruptures (discontinuity) should take precedence over yearly average equilibrium.

Nevertheless, existing scenarios provide important information on potential regional
tensions. For instance, South Asia is expected to cultivate 98 percent of its potential usable land and to increase yield by more than 50 percent, but it will still import more food than
today.

A higher level of food availability per capita is expected, but the consequences
of a food crisis will also be more important, making the population more vulnerable to
climatic damage or price shocks.

This means that the average production level can be increased using fewer resources, but this should not happen at the expense of the resilience of production systems. These elements are at the core of green scenarios.

The goal for 2050 is not to boost productivity by 60 to 70% on average (Bruinsma, 2009), but to maintain this level of production in sensitive areas in the face of increased scarcity of numerous natural resources and rising population food supply disruptions are a possibility (FAO, 2011b; FAO, 2011d).

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