As Russia's continued aggression and war in Ukraine progresses, it is clear that the situation will become even more dangerous in the coming days. Not only will this happen on the battlefield, but the potential for danger lies in the potential situation inside Russia and Putin's behavior. Even then, the effects of the war on the global economy will continue to grow. Due to this, the war in Ukraine will become more and more terrible in the coming days. Wherever we are, the heat of this war will come upon us. It has already begun to burn.
Is Russia in the mud in Ukraine?
In any kind of war, those who carry out aggression start the war by making various calculations. What is the probable course of the war? Different types of scenarios are created in it. Such exercises are part of war preparation. It does not only consider the battlefield issue, it also considers what the response will be and how it will be dealt with. Russia did not suddenly invade Ukraine. Preliminary preparations for the war began in March-April 2021.
At the same time, Russian troops began gathering on the Crimea-Ukraine border, where Russian troops were conducting exercises. The purpose was to bring military equipment to the occasion and later use it during the aggression. The second phase of this aggression plan started in November-December last year. A report released by the US Central Intelligence Agency late last year states a report by the Washington Post (December 3, 2021). That is why the Russian aggression that started on February 24 is not an unplanned or sudden event.
But what is surprising is that many of the calculations that Russia made before this war seem to be wrong. The idea that Russia will be able to occupy Ukraine in a very short time is not correct. Two weeks later, Russia's failure to occupy the capital, Kiev, proves that the Ukrainian army and civilians have been able to mount a major resistance.
One of the reasons why Russian forces are unable to advance on the battlefield is the weather in Ukraine. That being said, the weather in Russia and Ukraine is such that at the end of the fall or autumn, the unpaved roads become so muddy that it is almost impossible for tanks or armored vehicles to advance. Looking at many pictures of the armored fleet heading towards Kiev, it seems that the Russian forces are stuck in the mud.
In the United States and Europe, rising oil prices and essential commodities will not be a relief to governments concerned. Not only that, but a recession in the world economy is not good for China either. It is this economic consideration that has made China reluctant to support Russia in this war. China has not sided with Russia in the UN Security Council and General Assembly. The more problems the world economy faces, the greater the pressure on Russia to end the war. Putin is expected to understand that.
But these need to be considered symbolic in one sense. The reason for the mudslides is not just the weather, but Russia as well. Russia probably hoped to end its military campaign by establishing a government loyal to it in Ukraine. With that in mind, Russia repeatedly called on the Ukrainian army at the beginning of the war to revolt and bring down the Zelensky government. That did not happen. Russia probably hoped that a section of Ukrainian citizens would welcome the Russian troops. The reason for Russia's expectations is that since 2013, there has been support for Ukraine from politicians loyal to Russia.
Yanukovych won the 2010 election, Historically, due to language and cultural ties, many Ukrainians feel a kind of bond with Russia. Russia, on the other hand, has never recognized Ukraine's independence. In one of his articles, Vladimir Putin described Ukraine and Russia as "one nation." He said the same thing to US President Biden.
Russia estimates it will receive support from inside Ukraine. But the kind of nationalist thinking that has developed among people who have enjoyed independence for three decades is what makes them even more anti-Russian at the time of this attack. With the onset of the military operation, the magnitude of the refugee problem has been negative for Russia on the one hand, and for the general population against Russia on the other. He said the same thing to US President Biden.
Danger inside Russia
One of the reasons Putin, who has been in power for 22 years, was able to maintain his authoritarian rule is that he was able to create a kind of stability. Authoritarian rulers of any kind try to legitimize their rule by saying that the economy is successful. But sanctions imposed on Russia in recent days have had a devastating effect on ordinary people. The ruble has fallen so much that no one knows how much more it will cost.
Putin and his allies probably did not realize how quickly the West's sanctions would affect the economy. Although Putin wants to show this war as Russia's struggle for survival against the West, it will continue to be unacceptable to the Russians, as is already evident from anti-war rallies in various cities. Russia has tightened controls on expression.
The more dissatisfaction within the country due to these, the more repressive measures the government will take. It is understood that some Russian citizens support Putin's war. But what role do the small beneficiaries who have been with Putin for so long still play in the face of such economic pressure? That is a matter of observation too. Because these events could affect Putin's behavior, this ban has been imposed on them. You can make the campaign strategy more brutal to end the war quickly.
The danger is imminent to the World Economy
Many other countries have supported the sanctions imposed on Russia by the United States and European countries. But what is noteworthy is that various non-governmental organizations have stopped doing business with Russia on their initiative. Products or services that were not banned are now becoming scarce in Russia. It should be noted that 26 percent of Russia's total GDP depends on exports.
From its experience in 2014, Russia probably thought that major sanctions would not be implemented due to differences between Europe and the United States on various issues. Europe will not be too strict because of Europe's dependence on Russia's oil and gas. But while oil and gas imports from Russia continue, the United States and other countries have taken various measures.
These measures will not only affect the Russian economy but also the world economy. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have already issued warnings to this effect. Rising prices of fuel oil and agricultural products have already begun to occur.
Smaller countries will suffer the most. It can be understood by giving the example of Bangladesh. Bangladesh imports 6 million tons of wheat every year. Of this, 3.5 million tons were imported from Ukraine and Russia. Russia and Ukraine export 29 percent of the world's wheat.
In the United States and Europe, rising oil prices and essential commodities will not be a relief to governments concerned. Not only that, but a recession in the world economy is not good for China either. It is this economic consideration that has made China reluctant to support Russia in this war. China has not sided with Russia in the UN Security Council and General Assembly.
The more problems the world economy faces, the greater the pressure on Russia to end the war. Putin is expected to understand that. But it does not seem that all this will make him compromise; the fear is that it will make him more aggressive. For this reason, the level of danger will increase in the coming days but not decrease.